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Key Highlights:
- MVRV ratio approaches 1-year SMA, a crossover linked to historic BTC rallies.
- Bollinger Bands squeeze on 4H chart suggests an imminent volatility spike.
- Critical support zones at $93K and $83K may define Bitcoin’s next direction.
Key technical and on-chain indicators are starting to line up, and Bitcoin is holding steady around $94,000. Bollinger Bands are tightening, suggesting potential volatility ahead.
Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio is nearing a bullish crossover with its 1-year moving average. At the same time, support levels around $93K remain intact to support short-term stability.
The MVRV Ratio is moving towards a bullish signal
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is one of the leading indicators that traders are currently watching. This is a ratio of Bitcoin’s current market price to the average price at which all coins last moved. It helps show if the market is overvalued or undervalued.
By late April 2025, the MVRV ratio (orange line) of Bitcoin neared its 1-year Simple Moving Average (blue line). The current MVRV is around 2.3; the 1-year average is just above this.
Ali highlights that momentum may turn bullish once the MVRV surpasses its 1-year SMA. Historically called a ‘golden cross,’ this crossover is often linked to upward price trends.
The MVRV has also seen a sharp rise from around 1.8 in early April to above 2.2 by the end of the month, as per Glassnode.
The market valuation shift relative to the realized price base suggests growing optimism. This could indicate that buyers are regaining their confidence in the asset.
Price Tightens as Bollinger Bands Squeeze
On top of that, Bitcoin is trading in a narrow range between $94,000 and $95,000 on the 4-hour chart from TradingView. Price volatility is tightening as Bollinger Bands tighten. This usually occurs before a significant price movement but does not determine direction.
Ali said, “Bitcoin is squeezing the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart.” “Just around the corner could be a major price move.”
This squeeze comes after a strong breakout from around $87,000 to almost $95,000 in late April. Bitcoin has since stayed mostly flat, which indicates consolidation.
If price breaks above the upper band, it may go higher. It may retest lower support levels if it falls below the lower band. However, according to the UTXO Realized Price Distribution data, two levels are critical support.
The price level near $93,198 contains roughly 639,830 BTC, accounting for 3.22% of the total supply. Meanwhile, the $83,444 level holds around 307,932 BTC, representing 1.55% of the supply.
These zones represent a lot of Bitcoin that has not moved in a long time at these prices. Usually, when the price is above these levels, those holders are in profit, and that often provides added support.
If the price goes below, these holders could sell to avoid losses and add to downward pressure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $95,160, just above this key $93,198 zone.
Sentiment may stay stable if the price remains above that. However, if the price falls below, traders can start looking at the $83,444 area as the next strong support.
Realized Price of Warm Supply Being Tested
The Realized Price for Bitcoin’s “warm supply” is an important metric to watch. It represents the price level for recently moved coins, distinguishing them from newly acquired ones.
By April 29, 2025, Bitcoin is trading slightly above this level at $94,298, and the Warm Supply Realized Price is $94,551.
Warm Supply’s MVRV is at -0.0026, indicating that prices are just under break-even for these holders. If the price climbs above this realized price, mid-term holders will see profits again. This could ease selling pressure and support further market stability.
This same metric was negative in March and early April, which coincided with price weakness. If held, this level could be a key turning point as the market regains strength and Bitcoin tests this level from below.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views, and opinions stated by the author, or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
