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Cardano price faces potential downside risk to $0.73 according to analyst Dan Gambardello’s technical analysis warning of a possible fakeout scenario.
The analyst notes Cardano‘s risk model currently sits at 35, positioning closer to bear market lows than bull market peaks.
Gambardello Identifies Fakeout Risk with $0.73 Target
Dan Gambardello has identified patterns suggesting that Cardano’s price could experience a fakeout scenario with downside targets of nearly $0.73.
The analyst noted Cardano’s risk model reading of 35 positions the token much closer to bear market lows than bull market highs.
Historical data shows previous bull cycles reached scores of 85 and potentially 100, while current levels sit just 25 points above bear market lows of 10.
The weekly chart structure shows alignment between the 20-week and 50-week moving averages lasting from July through September. The 20-week moving average currently provides support around 76 cents, which is a critical level for maintaining bullish outlook.
A wedge pattern of higher highs and higher lows has formed on Cardano’s chart, which is typically bullish in bull market environments. However, Gambardello warns this pattern could break down into a fakeout scenario.
The potential breakdown would target the 200-day moving average at $0.73. The analyst views the 200-day moving average as a key support area for any potential busted pattern scenario.
Historical cycle analysis shows Cardano previously found support between the 20-week and 50-week moving averages during bull market transitions.
Gambardello advised maintaining macro perspective and avoiding leverage during this uncertain period.
Cardano Price Setup Suggests Critical Decision Point Approaching
The current weekly candle remains open with six days remaining until closure, making the next few trading sessions critical for Cardano price.
Gambardello noted the importance of monitoring whether support holds around the 20-week moving average at $0.76. A breakdown below this level would activate the fakeout scenario targeting $0.73.
The wedge pattern structure shows months of consolidation with a drop in volatility typical of major breakout setups. Gambardello mentioned that the technical setup is similar to the patterns observed in Ethereum‘s recent price action.
Reliance Global Group Adds ADA to Corporate Treasury
In other Cardano news, Reliance Global Group completed its first Cardano purchase as part of its Digital Asset Treasury initiative on September 22, 2025.
The Nasdaq-listed insurance and financial services company added ADA following an earlier Ethereum acquisition. The purchase is a part of Reliance’s overall $120 million cryptocurrency investment strategy approved in two $60 million phases.
CEO Ezra Beyman cited Cardano’s strong fundamentals and long-term potential as key factors in the selection decision.
The company highlighted Cardano’s sustainability focus, rigorous development approach, and community-driven governance as distinguishing characteristics. Beyman described the addition as showing commitment to assets combining fundamental strength with growth potential.
Reliance’s selection criteria included several advantages of Cardano’s architecture. The company noted the peer-reviewed development approach using formal verification methods.
Real-world adoption cases influenced Reliance’s decision, including partnerships in developing nations and blockchain-based ID systems in Ethiopia.
The company’s newly formed Crypto Advisory Board oversees the implementation of treasury strategy. The board ensures governance, custody, and compliance alignment with institutional best practices.
Cardano’s sustainable treasury model funding ongoing development without external reliance appealed to corporate treasury managers.
Reliance joins a small but growing list of public companies diversifying crypto holdings across multiple blockchain platforms.
The combination of corporate adoption and technical setup creates an interesting situation for Cardano price action. Gambardello’s warning about the potential downside to $0.73 provides risk management guidance for traders, while institutional adoption suggests underlying strength.
