Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta Reportedly Eyes Prediction Markets

Facebook’s parent company, Meta, is considering venturing into the prediction markets sector. The New York Times first reported this. They noted that the company’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, has given an internal team the directive to develop the platform.

According to the report, the team is currently working on a standalone app called Arena. That’s similar to popular prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

However, the report, which cited two unnamed Meta employees, noted that the product is mostly experimental for now. The platform reportedly will initially use a point-based system rather than real-money wagering.

If Meta launches Arena, it plans to leverage its massive user base across its social media networks, Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp. The company sees about 3.5 billion users daily across its platforms.

Zuckerberg Sees Prediction Markets as Growth Avenue

The New York Times report noted that Meta’s venture into the prediction market is part of Zuckerberg’s efforts. He usually tends to develop new apps based on users’ online behavior.

More than one-third of the world’s population already uses Meta’s products daily. With this, the company’s user growth appeared to have reached a point of diminishing returns. It has been working on new products to address this.

In the past, the company explored crypto-adjacent products such as stablecoins and the metaverse. However, it struggled to gain traction with these products. Regulatory pushback is largely responsible for its decision to abandon its stablecoin plan.

Interestingly, Meta had previously ventured into the prediction markets sector when it launched Forecast in 2020 to share crowdsourced knowledge. The app allowed users to make predictions on diverse events, ranging from COVID-19 vaccination to competitions.

While Forecast operated like a market, there was no real money involved. Users wagered virtual points, and a leaderboard ranked users by the number of correct predictions.

Meta later shut down the app in 2022. That happened two years before prediction markets would catch on with Polymarket during the 2024 elections.

Prediction Markets Attract Interest Amidst Massive Growth

Meanwhile, Meta’s consideration of relaunching a prediction platform highlights the sector’s massive growth over the past two years.

Since its phenomenal year in 2025, the sector has attracted increased interest from institutions and regulators. Traditional gambling platforms such as DraftKings and FanDuel and exchanges such as CME and Gemini have also launched prediction markets.

The sector has continued to grow into 2026. It received over $30 billion in monthly notional volume in both April and May and $29 billion in April. So far this year, the sector has recorded a notional volume of around $144 billion.

Unsurprisingly, regulatory scrutiny has also increased, especially amidst evidence of insider trading and market manipulation. The  Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has been working to regulate the sector.

However, prediction platforms are also locked in legal battles with states over sports betting.  There are over a dozen lawsuits involving states and the CFTC over whether prediction platforms can offer sports contracts.