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Nvidia stock has been highly volatile in the past few weeks as investors wait for the upcoming big-tech earnings and as they assess the ongoing progress made by Chinese AI companies. The stock was trading at $206 on Tuesday, up by 9% from its lowest level this month. Investors are assessing Nvidia’s outlook ahead of major technology earnings while monitoring competition from rapidly improving Chinese artificial intelligence models.
Chinese AI Models are Gaining Momentum
U.S.-developed models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude have remained among the industry’s leading frontier AI systems according to widely used benchmark evaluations.
Moonshot AI introduced Kimi K3, which benchmark providers and independent evaluations have placed among the stronger open-weight reasoning models.
Other Chinese models such as Alibaba’s Qwen, Minimax, MiMo, and DeepSeek are also ranking well in the industry. Some of these companies have also become giants, with Moonshot eying a Hong Kong IPO that values it at over $70 billion. DeepSeek AI is also raising cash at a $52 billion valuation.
The ongoing growth in Chinese AI models has led to jitters in Washington, where the Trump administration is considering how to respond.
These developments have some pros and cons for Nvidia, which is barred by the US government from selling its most advanced chips to Chinese companies. Instead, the company is allowed to sell H200 chips to a handful of Chinese firms.
On the negative side, the success of these companies mean that it is now possible to build advanced chips using Chinese GPUs. Such a move may lead to lower demand for Nvidia shares.
On the other hand, it may also lead to more demand for Nvidia chips as these Chinese companies have found ways to access them. Some of them are using smugglers, while others are using overseas data centers to train their models.
Nvidia Continues to Invest in Neocloud Companies
NVDA stock is also reacting to news that the company has continued to invest in neocloud companies. It has taken a 9.3% stake in Nebius, the second-biggest company in the industry.
The company also owns a large stake in CoreWeave, the biggest neocloud provider. Most recently, it invested in IREN, a Bitcoin mining company that is slowly transitioning into a data center provider.
Some analysts have questioned whether Nvidia’s investments create a feedback loop in which portfolio companies purchase Nvidia hardware, potentially reinforcing both revenue growth and strategic partnerships. Nvidia has not characterized its investment strategy in those terms.
Looking forward, the next key catalyst for the NVDA stock price will be the upcoming earnings by some of the biggest companies in the tech industry. Tesla and Google, which spend billions of dollars in Nvidia chips, will release their numbers on Wednesday.
Intel, which Nvidia has invested in, will publish its numbers a day after that. Then, the biggest clients, including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Amazon, will release their numbers.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Market commentary, analyst expectations, and technical analysis do not guarantee future stock performance. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
NVDA Stock Price Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the NVDA stock price was trading at $204, up by 25% from its lowest level in March this year. It remains above the ascending trendline that links the lowest levels since March.
The stock has jumped above the 100-day moving average and formed a bullish flag pattern, a common continuation sign. This pattern is made up of a vertical line resembling a flagpole, and a descending channel.
Therefore, the most likely Nvidia stock forecast is bullish, with the next key level to watch being at $236, which is about 15% above the current level.
