Forget Flash Crash, Bitcoin USD Price Still Upholding Sparktember Trend

Bitcoin is holding gains this September, keeping the “Sparktember” pattern alive. Past data shows green September shifts often lead to strong months that follow.

While analysts are divided on whether the current cycle is running out of strength, treasury adoption may offer support.

September Stays in Focus for Bitcoin USD

Bitcoin’s performance in September has drawn attention again. The month is often called “Sparktember” because positive returns have led to further gains in the past.

Data from Coinglass highlights how this trend has played out. In September 2022, Bitcoin closed with a loss of 3.12%.

The following year showed improvement, as September 2023 ended with a 3.91% gain. That was followed by October, rising 28.52% and November, climbing 8.81%.

The pattern continued in 2024. Bitcoin finished September with 7.29%, and October and November posted 10.76% and 37.29% respectively.

Notably, this year, September is again showing a positive pattern. With just over a week left in the month, Bitcoin is up 4.36%.

Analysts suggest that holding above $109,000 until the month-end could set the stage for further growth into the last quarter of the year.

Supporters of the Sparktember thesis say that history points to stronger quarters whenever September ends in the green.

Still, they also stress that markets do not always repeat past moves. Many factors can influence prices, and September’s role is not guaranteed to last.

Analyst Raises Questions over Cycle Strength

It is worth noting that not all observers are convinced the current run can continue. Some believe that Bitcoin is showing signs of cycle exhaustion.

For example, market analyst Joao Wedson pointed to the SOPR Trend Signal, which measures blockchain profitability.

He argued that profitability is falling and that many investors are buying at higher prices later than in past cycles.

Another factor is the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, which now stands at $111,400.

This figure shows the average price paid by recent buyers and could act as a pressure point for institutions.

Wedson explained that the Sharpe Ratio, which measures return against risk, is lower than in 2024. This suggests that potential rewards are not as attractive relative to the risks.

Social interest also appears weaker than before. Attention has partly shifted to altcoins, where some investors see better opportunities.

Additionally, even if Bitcoin reaches new highs, Wedson believes profitability may not match earlier years, and more focus could turn to alternative assets.

Bitcoin USD Treasury Adoption and Corporate Moves

Meanwhile, one main factor that could help Bitcoin is corporate adoption. Companies continue to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets, showing that it remains a part of long-term strategies.

In a major development, Strive, Inc., the investment firm co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, recently announced plans to acquire Semler Scientific in an all-stock deal.

Notably, this move underlines how Bitcoin is becoming part of larger corporate activity and positions Strive as one of the bigger public holders of the asset.

In addition, Strategy reported that it bought 850 BTC for $99.7 million, at an average price of $117,344 per coin.

The company said it has yielded 26% on its Bitcoin holdings.

Strategy now owns 639,835 BTC, purchased for $47.33 billion at an average price of $73,971 per coin.

These large-scale purchases show that institutions are still willing to commit capital to Bitcoin.

Again, for market watchers, this raises the possibility that treasury adoption could support prices even if retail demand slows.

Whether Sparktember momentum can carry into the last quarter remains to be seen.

The data shows that positive Septembers have often been followed by strong price rallies, particularly in Octobers and Novembers.

However, with questions about cycle strength and attention shifting to altcoins, the outcome for 2025 may not follow the same path.