Gemini Eyes Prediction Markets Amid Shutdown-Delayed Approval

Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is making waves with a new plan. Bloomberg reported this on November 4, 2025. In May 2025, Gemini submitted its application to the CFTC. The company intends to establish a particular contract market.

The purpose of this action is to compete with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket by offering prediction-based derivatives contracts. However, delays are being caused by the US government shutdown.

Gemini’s Ambitious Plan

Gemini wants to enter the growing world of prediction markets. These markets enable people to bet on real-world events, including elections and sports outcomes. The Winklevoss twins filed with the CFTC to create a regulated platform called Gemini Titan.

They plan to offer contracts on economic, financial, political, and sports forecasts. This expansion enables Gemini to provide services beyond traditional cryptocurrency trading.

The company teased this idea during its $425 million IPO in September 2025. The IPO was a big success, showing strong investor confidence.

Gemini faces tough competition. Kalshi, already CFTC-registered, saw $4.4 billion in trading volume in October 2025. Polymarket, with $3 billion in funding, is planning a relaunch in the U.S. Other giants, such as CME Group and Coinbase, are expanding in this area, while Robinhood already offers prediction markets across politics, entertainment, and other categories.

An analyst from Needham called prediction markets an “attractive opportunity.” This suggests Gemini’s move could attract new users. The company hopes to launch these products as soon as possible if approved.

Challenges from the Shutdown

The U.S. government shutdown presents a significant challenge. It started on October 1, 2025, and is now in its 36th day. This standoff between Republicans and Democrats has stopped many federal agencies, including the CFTC.

The CFTC reviews applications like Gemini’s, but its work is on hold. Approval could take months or even years. The shutdown’s delay adds uncertainty to Gemini’s plans.

The shutdown affects more than just Gemini. It has furloughed 1.4 million federal workers and halted services like loan approvals. The BBC reported on November 4, 2025, that President Trump’s push for government cuts has worsened the situation.

This economic drag could also slow the crypto industry. The organization has not paid contractors and has paused research projects. Gemini must wait for the government to resolve this before moving forward.

Growing Demand for Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are booming. People love betting on future events using crypto platforms. Kalshi and Polymarket lead the way with huge trading volumes. This growth shows public interest in these markets.

James Newman from Chiliz, a sports blockchain, said that more companies are noticing this trend. He emphasized the importance of responsible innovation. Other firms are jumping in. Coinbase plans to expand into event contracts as part of its “Everything Exchange.”

Robinhood already offers regulated prediction markets covering politics, entertainment, sports, and other real-world events not just games. CME Group is also exploring this space. A 2021 study in the Journal of Economic Perspectives found that prediction markets often outperform traditional polls.

They do so when participants bring diverse information to the table. This supports Gemini’s strategy, but the shutdown might limit data access. Gemini’s entry could shake up the market. It aims to offer a regulated option that appeals to cautious investors.

The $425 million IPO provides it with the financial strength to weather delays. However, competitors might gain ground during this time. The trend suggests that prediction markets will continue to grow, making Gemini’s plan a smart long-term investment.