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Bitcoin price ended the third quarter with a roughly 43% gain after briefly reclaiming $85,000 following the latest U.S. inflation report.
The advance marked Bitcoin’s strongest third quarter since 2017 and its best quarter overall since late 2024.
Late-September ETF inflows and another Bitcoin purchase by Strategy added to demand indicators. Meanwhile, softer-than-expected PCE inflation reduced market pricing for another Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
Bitcoin Price Posts Strongest Q3 Since 2017
Bitcoin has been showing significant strength relative to other traditional assets, outperforming US equities and Gold. In September itself, the BTC rally continued with 7% gains, while the S&P 500 remained flat and gold prices declined by more than 6%, reported analysts at Santiment.
With the easing of US PCE inflation in August, Bitcoin quickly moved above $85,000 on September 30. On the other hand, the institutional demand for Bitcoin remains robust.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted billions of dollars in September, including several large inflow days late in the month. On the other hand, Michael Saylor’s Strategy resumed strong buying, adding 1,665 Bitcoins earlier this week.
Looking ahead to Q4, Santiment pointed out a few factors that could support a Bitcoin rally. It noted that continued ETF demand, corporate accumulation, improving regulatory clarity, and renewed altcoin participation to support overall market momentum.
Bitcoin Price Sees 40% Gains in Q3, Q4 Marco Events in Favor
In Q3 2026, Bitcoin price registered a gain of 40%, putting it on track for its strongest third quarter since 2017. The rally follows two consecutive negative quarters. This marks one of the fastest recoveries for Bitcoin in recent years.
Furthermore, the macro indicators are aligning well for a Bitcoin Uptober rally. As inflation showed signs of cooling off, the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October fell to 38.2%, down from 50.4% a day earlier. Markets now assign a 61.8% probability to the Fed holding rates steady at its October meeting, as per data from AskClash.
Furthermore, the Bitcoin monthly returns chart above shows that October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, with BTC closing higher in 10 of the 13 years since 2013.
The seasonal trend has helped earn October the nickname “Uptober,” reflecting its record of positive monthly returns.
Bitcoin Sees the BuildUp Of Long Positions
Crypto analyst CW said net buying of Bitcoin (BTC) long positions is continuing. He also pointed out that the Bitcoin open interest (OI) and net position delta is steadily increasing. According to CW, the trend follows the conclusion of short covering, with fresh buying now driving growth in long positions.
The odds of Bitcoin reaching $100K are currently around 35%. It will be interesting to see some catalysts that can support further BTC rally.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Historical returns and prediction-market odds do not guarantee future performance.
