$16.5B Bitcoin Options Expiry Poised To Spark Major BTC Volatility

Key Insights:

• $16.5B in Bitcoin options set to expire on March 28.
• Bulls need BTC above $90K to recover lost positions.
• Bears aim to push the price below $84K for a $600M gain.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are preparing for the expiration of a historic monthly option. On March 28, $16.5 Billion in open interest is set to be settled.

The upcoming expiry sees bulls and bears battling for dominance around the $90,000 mark. Bulls aim to push BTC higher. At the same time, bears strive to regain control below $84,000.

Massive expiry builds pressure on both sides

Data from Laevitas shows $10.5 Billion in call (buy) options and $6 Billion in put (sell) options set to expire on March 28. However, nearly $7.6 Billion of those calls require Bitcoin to surpass $92,000 to become profitable.

BTC traded near $86,000, placing the most bullish positions out of the money. If the OG token holds around $86,500, only $2 Billion in put options remain active.

However, a drop below $84,000 could raise that figure to $2.6 Billion—giving bears a stronger hand heading into expiry. This creates a narrow and volatile price zone, incentivizing both sides to push spot prices before Friday’s close.

Bitcoin struggles under key resistance near $90K

Since hitting a high of $88,752 on March 24, Bitcoin has failed to break above the $88,000 barrier. A pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the 1-hour chart reflects the asset’s short-term weakness.

Glassnode’s “Week On-chain” report underscored the strain on short-term holders (STHs), who now hold 3.4 million BTC in unrealized losses. That’s the highest volume of STH-held supply in loss since July 2018.

Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score remains below 0.1, signaling strong sell pressure. Onchain transfer volumes dropped 47% to $5.2 Billion daily. At the same time, active addresses declined 18% from 950,000 in Nov. 2024 to 780,000.

Bulls pin hopes on ETF inflows and macro catalysts

While liquidity continues to dry up and short-term holders face losses, bullish traders still see a path forward. Their optimism hinges on a potential rebound triggered by central bank monetary expansion and renewed institutional demand.

Corporate adoption remains part of that narrative. GameStop (GME), Rumble (RUM), and Japan-listed Metaplanet (TYO:3350) have recently added Bitcoin to their balance sheets. This move provides bulls with additional motivation to remain active in the market.

On the technical side, trader Batman flagged a $39 Million cluster of short liquidations near $89,000 on Binance. “Liquidity drives the market,” he said, suggesting the area could trigger a sharp move if tested.

Paxton pointed to a breakout from a pennant pattern on the 4-hour chart.

“We’ll watch its next move to call the trend,” he noted.

Bitcoin Traders Brace for Post-Expiry Shakeout

With $16.5 Billion in open interest set to expire, traders expect volatility to pick up sharply. The following 48 hours could set the tone for Bitcoin’s trend heading into April.

Altcoin Sherpa noted on X that the weekly structure of BTC still leans bearish unless it reclaims the $90,000 zone. “Not great at all,” he wrote, warning that the downside risk remains in play.

Karan Singh Arora identified $89,000 as the breakout level that could open the door to $93,000 and $96,000. He pointed to the 200-day exponential moving average at $85,570 as a key short-term support.

A trader predicted Bitcoin might dip below $84,000, then briefly retest the $90,000 level. It could continue its downward trajectory toward $81,000 or lower.

As expiry nears, both bulls and bears remain on edge. Any sharp move could trigger liquidations, turning a quiet range into a breakout—or breakdown.

Disclaimer

In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.