Cardano Tops Solana In Dev Activity As ADA ETF Odds Hit 75%

Key Highlights:

• Cardano averaged 87 core developers, nearly double Solana’s in the past year.
• Bloomberg gives Cardano ETF a 75% approval chance by October 2025.
• ADA’s breakout from the falling wedge could trigger a rally of over 21%.

Cardano (ADA) has overtaken Solana in core development activity, drawing more attention to the project. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates, the Cardano spot ETF has a 75% chance of approval in 2025.

Interest in the technical setup of ADA has surged, drawing attention to its potential movements. Traders also focus on its derivatives market and long-term growth outlook as sentiment shifts.

Cardano Leads in Developer Activity Over the Past Year

According to new data from Token Terminal, Cardano has averaged 87 weekly active core developers in the last 365 days.

During the same period, Solana registered an average of 49. Finally, ADA has the lead in code commits, indicating a steadier development pace across its ecosystem.

The chart shows Cardano’s developer count peaked around 150 mid-2024 before trending slightly lower to 87 by May 2025. The number of Solana remained relatively stable, though its figure fell below 50 in recent months.

It is not uncommon to see development activity as a key measure of blockchain project health. This is because it indicates ongoing updates, feature improvements, and protocol maintenance.

Cardano could gain a development advantage, enabling upgrades to its smart contract capabilities and staking systems. Strengthening its DeFi ecosystem would make it more competitive with other blockchain networks.

Cardano ETF Approval Odds Give ADA New Institutional Narrative

Moreover, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, the ETF approval of Cardano in 2025 is 75%. Grayscale filed its case on February 10, 2025, with a final SEC deadline of October 23, 2025.

According to the report, the SEC will likely consider Cardano as a commodity, a condition for ETF approval.

Digital assets and other significant assets are being considered for spot exchange-traded products (ETPs). These include Solana, XRP, and Litecoin, which are also under evaluation.

A successful Cardano ETF could make the asset more accessible to traditional investors. It would allow those using retirement accounts and brokerage platforms to gain exposure to ADA without directly holding it.

During times of strong market sentiment, this institutional gateway could drive demand. However, the approval is still subject to regulatory review and could be affected by broader U.S. crypto policy.

ADA Derivatives Data Shows a Cautious Return of Positive Sentiment

Furthermore, the open interest (OI) weighted funding rate of Cardano has returned to positive. Since late April 2025, funding rates have turned green again after spending several weeks mostly in the red. If the funding rates are favorable, traders will pay to keep long positions open.

Coinglass data reveals the funding rate has fluctuated between -0.010% and +0.010% in recent sessions. Lately, it has moved above zero, indicating a shift in market sentiment. This implies that some market participants are betting on higher prices, but conviction is limited.

The price of ADA has also recovered slowly. It has climbed to around $0.70 after dipping below $0.55 in early April. The price chart shows a modest uptrend over the past two weeks. However, momentum is still measured.

Technical Pattern Suggests Breakout Potential from Falling Wedge

The 4-hour ADA/USDT trading chart shows a falling wedge pattern. This is usually a bullish sign indicating a price breakout. As per the chart, if Cardano sustains momentum, it could surge by 21.18%, a projection of the flagpole.

The Awesome Oscillator (AO) has turned positive, signaling bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Accumulation/Distribution line indicates gradual buying over the past week, increasing investor confidence.

The pattern and volume indicators favor ADA testing at higher levels if the market conditions remain the same. That said, it will be confirmed that the price is holding above key support levels at around $0.68.

A more favorable market tone is being provided by Cardano’s developer activity, ETF narrative, and improving technical structure.

Disclaimer

In this article, the views, and opinions stated by the author, or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.