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Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price posted its highest monthly close ever at over $107,000.
- July has delivered 9% average gains in 7 of last 10 years.
- BTC must reclaim $108,890 to avoid forming a lower high.
Bitcoin closed June above $107,000, marking its highest-ever monthly close. Analysts expect a 9% rally in July based on seasonal trends, but BTC must break above $108,890 to avoid forming a lower high and risking short-term downside pressure.
Bitcoin Price Closes Q2 at Record High, Sets Stage for July Move
Bitcoin ended June with its highest monthly candle close on record, topping $107,000. The asset added 29.74% in the second quarter, finishing Q2 with a decisive uptrend.
Data from TradingView showed that June’s monthly close surpassed the May candle, which ended at $104,600. January followed closely behind at around $102,450. All three six-figure monthly closes came in 2025, underscoring bullish strength following Bitcoin’s April correction to $75,000.
Moby Media posted on X that the 29.74% quarterly gain wrapped Q2 with force. The June close also marked the third consecutive green monthly candle, a formation not seen since early 2024.
10X Research Forecasts 9% July Gain Based on Seasonal Trends
Despite forming a “spinning top” candle in June—often seen as a potential reversal indicator analyst Markus Thielen from 10X Research remains optimistic. He noted that historical seasonality supports a July rally.
“In seven of the past 10 Julys, Bitcoin has posted positive returns,” Thielen said, citing an average gain of 9%.
He added that U.S. equities tend to perform well in July, and Bitcoin often follows their lead. Thielen acknowledged that some Julys had delivered negative results but noted those losses were “modest” and stayed in single digits.
“This seasonal trend sets a favorable backdrop for a potential move higher,” he said.
Bitcoin Price Must Clear Resistance or Risk Lower High
Still, price action faces near-term challenges. Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted on X that Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed just below the “final major weekly resistance” at $108,890. On Coinbase, BTC closed the week at $108,380.
According to Rekt Capital, this setup could develop into a lower high if bulls fail to flip the resistance into support. He pointed to the need for a daily close above $108,890 to maintain bullish momentum.
A similar pattern appeared in July 2024, when a green spinning top candle preceded a red “hammer” and an 8.6% decline to $59,000 in August. That historical precedent keeps some traders cautious.
Traders Watching Range as New Quarter Opens
BTC/USD hovered around $107,000 at press time, dipping 2% over the past 24 hours. The pair has traded in a tight range for the past week.
Daan Crypto Trades observed on X that Bitcoin remains “consolidating in this current range and channel.” He added that new months and quarters often start with “choppy” movement before a clear direction emerges.
“Give it some time to play out and watch for confirmations,” Daan wrote.
Don, another trader on X, offered a simple threshold: “$106K must hold for $BTC or it’s going lower,” he warned. “Yes I said it—we could go lower.”
Political Tailwinds and Q2 Momentum Still Matter
The bullish quarterly structure continues to draw attention. Since President Donald Trump’s win in Nov. 2024, Bitcoin has gained over $26,000, climbing from a $96,500 monthly close to the June peak.
While past performance does not guarantee future returns, the post-election tailwind and ETF demand have supported higher timeframe structures.
Still, macroeconomic uncertainty and technical resistance demand caution. Until bulls reclaim $108,890, the possibility of a short-term correction remains.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
