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Key Insights:
- Cardano holds 90% approval odds for 2025 spot ETF.
- Despite the Cardano news, daily transaction volume on the Cardano chain has dropped to 20.6K.
- Cardano price forms a falling wedge pattern, signaling possible bullish price breakout.
Cardano news is making rounds again as its chances of a ADA ETF approval by the SEC hit 90%. This is along with XRP, doge, DOT, HBAR, and AVAX. This comes as the daily number of transactions on Cardano is also dropping.
Regulatory Timeline and ETF Context
The favorable outlook of Cardano ETF approval lies in a recent trend of spot ETF filings. Grayscale also filed Cardano 19b-4 officially on February 10, 2025. The decision by the SEC should be made on or before October 23, 2025. This filing has been accepted by the SEC. The token itself is reported to be considered as a prospective commodity, which enhances the situation with its regulation. Nonetheless, the futures market built by Cardano, listed among the top movers by Grayscale, is currently lacking a Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC) regulation. This might be a disadvantage in terms of institutional adoption of Cardano as compared to other cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or Ethereum.
Nonetheless, its presence on the high-probability list is a remarkable pointer to how the large-cap altcoin will be categorized by regulators following the Bitcoin ETF wave. Litecoin and Solana have 95% chances of passing. This makes them the current leaders, and Tron and SUI are the odds with unknown or low possibilities.
Transactions Drop Despite the Cardano News, Is the Cardano Price at Risk?
Cardano has seen its share of ups and downs adhering to the daily chain transactions in these past few weeks, as per the new chart data. Soaring as high as above 50 000 transactions a day at some point in the current year, the network has currently retraced to around 20 600 transactions. This is a decrease of 3.6%. The current level puts Cardano activity more than 50% at local tops and the daily average transaction volume is around 27,500 at the moment.
This decline in on-chain activity can possibly indicate general activistic apathy or simply lack of demand for dApps on the Cardano blockchain. These losses are also significant to observe since real usage data is essential to value Layer 1 blockchain tokens. Low levels of activity may strain the Cardano price, unless a positive factor such as development activity restart, new collaborations, or some macro-level ETF demand emerges.
Falling Wedge Pattern Points to Potential Rebound
Cardano’s price action formed a falling wedge structure on the daily chart. This bullish reversal pattern connects March highs above $0.80 with recent lows near $0.50. At press time, ADA traded around $0.56, testing the wedge’s resistance line.
If ADA breaks above the $0.60–$0.62 resistance zone with strong volume, it could confirm a breakout. The wedge’s measured move projects a potential target above $1.30. Until that breakout occurs, downside risks remain in play.
Volume analysis showed a large net negative delta of -6.31 million . Sellers continued to dominate, reflecting persistent bearish pressure despite technical signals. Still, a confirmed breakout with follow-through buying could shift momentum quickly.
The stochastic oscillator sat in neutral territory around 44–45, with the %K and %D lines converging. This setup hinted at a possible bullish crossover. If confirmed, it could add strength to a breakout scenario, especially with ETF speculation still in focus.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
