Pearl
Ondo
Ethereum
Bitway
Derive
Pudgy Penguins
NEAR Protocol
Key Highlights:
- Powell’s Jackson Hole speech could lead to Bitcoin volatility based on hawkish or dovish commentary.
- Despite earlier expectations of rate cuts after soft labor data, higher inflation metrics have reduced September rate-cut odds.
- BTC has weakened since its $124,000 peak, testing its daily 50-day EMA. Analysts warn of a possible slide to $108,000 or even $95,000–$100,000 before a new rally.
Fed chair Jerome Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. Market analysts believe that the Bitcoin price volatility could spike again, sending jitters across the broader cryptocurrency market. Amid bearish pressure, analysts are projecting a BTC drop under $110K.
Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech to Stir Bitcoin Volatility
The annual Jackson Hole symposium begins this week. Investors are watching closely as market uncertainty grows. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on Friday.
Historically, Powell’s remarks at the event have sparked significant market volatility. As a result, crypto market analysts predict strong volatility in Bitcoin and altcoins. Rate-cut expectations remain shaky, and the August 21–23 window could be pivotal for future monetary policy direction.
Looking into historical data, in 2023, a hawkish Fed tone prompted an initial Bitcoin rally, followed by a sharp decline. In 2024, dovish remarks produced the same pump-and-dump pattern.
On the other hand, Bitcoin has been showing weakness since its all-time high at $124,000. Crypto analyst Captain Faibik noted that Bitcoin has retested its daily 50-day EMA.
It could be gearing up for another bearish move. According to Faibik, if the critical $111,800 support level fails to hold, BTC may slide further toward $108,000.
Fed Rate Cut Chances Drop Before Powell’s Jackson Hole Meeting
Following the US CPI data for July, the expectations of Fed rate cuts spiked to 99%. Furthermore, the weak labour market also fueled the hope of the Fed pivot. However, high inflationary data would eclipse the weak labour market data.
The Federal Reserve’s July FOMC minutes indicated that policymakers view inflation risks as outweighing concerns over labor market softness. Following the release, market odds of a September rate cut dropped notably.
The minutes also flagged potential tariff-related pressures that could keep inflation elevated. Investors are closely watching the Jackson Hole symposium.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on August 22. His remarks could influence market sentiment and future policy expectations.
Many also believe that Powell will hold his cards. They think he won’t disclose much about future monetary policy decisions until the September FOMC. Analysts at The Kobeissi Letter noted:
If the Fed is using inflation as a gauge for rate cuts, then rate cuts are nowhere near. Core CPI inflation is back above 3.0% and PPI inflation just jumped +0.9% MoM, its biggest jump in 3+ years. Powell appears ready to hold rates steady if he feels it is necessary. The September jobs report will decide everything.
Bitcoin Can See A Drop Under $100K, Before Fresh Rally
Over the past two years, the BTC price has continued to rise with higher highs and higher lows. Market analysts expect Bitcoin to dip to the $95,000–$100,000 range. This correction could set the stage for its next rally. The move is seen as a healthy reset before upward momentum resumes.
Crypto trader Dann Crypto Trades highlighted a critical support area for Bitcoin. He noted that his current green zone could be a local range low sweep. At the same time, it is maintaining support from previous consolidation highs.
The analyst warned that a deeper move lower could signal structural weakness. The analyst noted that Bitcoin price action re-entering a broad consolidation range after a breakout is seen as a bearish signal.
On-chain data also shows that the demand for Bitcoin has dropped significantly. Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have declined over the past few weeks and are now entering negative territory. Besides Bitcoin, the broader crypto market shows weakness, with altcoins seeing larger volatility.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
