Bernstein Says Bitcoin has Broken a 4-year Cycle, Predicts BTC Price to Reach $1 Million

Analysts at wealth management firm Bernstein believe that the four-year cycle for Bitcoin is broken. The researchers expressed this view in a new study, noting that the era of Bitcoin’s peak and decline in 4-year cycles has come to an end.

The opinion comes amidst a slightly positive performance that saw the flagship asset regain $90,000.

Bernstein Expects Bitcoin to Reach $1 Million by 2025

VanEck’s head of digital assets, Matthew Sigel, shared excerpts of the Bernstein research note on X. According to the note, Bitcoin is now in an extended bull cycle and is on track to reach $1 million in value by 2033.

The researchers noted that the recent Bitcoin price correction only further confirms their opinion about the Bitcoin bull cycle.

They wrote:

“In view of recent market correction, we believe, the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern (cycle peaking every 4 years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.”

The analysts added that despite a more than 30% correction in the Bitcoin price, the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen less than 5% outflows.

This further confirms their bullish outlook for the asset, which they expect to hit $150,000 by 2026. In their outlook, the current cycle is expected to peak in 2027, concluding with Bitcoin at $200,000.

Interestingly, the recent note doubled down on another from mid-November. In that instance, Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, attributed Bitcoin’s decline to fears surrounding the peak of the 4-year cycle.

At the time, they noted that the decline from $126,000 felt more likely a cycle correction than a peak. The analysts argued that all structural tailwinds that will propel Bitcoin to higher prices remain intact.

Bitcoin Regains $90,000 Even as Struggle Continues

Meanwhile, Bernstein’s bullish position comes amidst Bitcoin briefly reaching above $92,000. While the flagship asset has since fallen back to $90,000, it looks poised to maintain its value around that level.

The surge above $90,000 is most likely a result of Strategy announcing that it had acquired 10,624 BTC. It is the treasury company’s biggest purchase in months and a vote of confidence in the asset and its position.

Still, the over 1% decline in Bitcoin price today shows that the market remains mostly unconvinced. Glassnode analysts also support this view, noting metrics such as weakening Spot CVD and a decline in futures open interest. Other metrics, which focus on both demand and supply, also hint at a cautious outlook.

They  wrote:

“Overall, Bitcoin shows early signs of recovery momentum, yet sentiment and positioning remain cautious, highlighting a market still rebuilding confidence after recent volatility.”

Meanwhile, one positive sign is the decrease in Bitcoin balance on exchanges. Santiment data indicates that over 400,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past year. This usually signals reduced selling pressure in the long term.