Ethereum Price Cycle Doubts Grow as Whales Bid Above 200 EMA

The crypto market is slowly rebounding. However, it cannot be ascertained if the rebound will be sustained. Many altcoin sectors rebounded on the day. Ethereum (ETH), the biggest, was left behind.

Data from various sources showed cycles were breaking. Whales placed promising bids on the Ethereum price. Its structural outlook remained strong. As cycle doubts intensify, does that mean ETH is headed for the missed rally?

Ethereum Price Cycle Faces Major Deviation

Ethereum has followed Bitcoin‘s 4-year halving cycle price performance in the past. After the halving, years like 2017 saw 10 months of bullish closes, while 2021 saw eight of them. Especially in Q4 2017, the Ethereum price rose by more than 113%.

However, in 2025, the year after the 2024 halving, it had a 12.07% annual return. However, nine monthly candles were red, just like the bear market in 2018. The fourth quarter of 2025 was especially bad, with a drop of 29%. It went against expectations of a strong close.

This performance raises questions about the validity of the cycle going forward. This happened despite the spike in inflow of ETFs, upgrades like Fusaka in early December, and steady TVL growth.

Some say it’s dead, while others see changes in the structure. The data indicated a deviation. However, overarching macroeconomic factors may prolong rather than terminate the trend.

Binance Whales Bid on ETH

While that sounds like a cycle shift from the norm, Ethereum whales were positioning for Q1 2026. Recent order flow data showed that big traders on Binance were buying ETH.

The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) on Binance shot up to $25.13 million. It’s a lot more than other exchanges. Bybit whales purchased $4.24 million in ETH, while those on OKX bought about $2.21 million. Coinbase’s $2.62 million closed the chapter.

This aggressive bidding shows that there is a lot of concentrated spot demand on the platform.

Ethereum price went up from a low of $3,014.49 to about $3,056.56 during the CVD spike. This shows a short-term recovery on the 1-minute chart.

ETH is trading at $3,058.67 (-0.02%), but the overall market conviction is still unclear. According to on-chain data, the rally’s chances of continuing depend on more spot inflows across venues.

Ethereum Price Sitting Above 200 EMA Support Level

In the meantime, the charts showed that the Ethereum/Bitcoin price was trading just above its daily 200 EMA. Also, the horizontal support was at 0.03333 BTC. This 200 EMA on the ETH/BTC pair acted as dynamic support.

In terms of USD valuation, ETH was stuck around $3,000. Despite the hold above the 0.03333 BTC valuation, the ETH/BTC pair was down from a high of 0.04300 BTC in August.

This period was the epitome of the altcoin season. If the pair holds and the broader market strengthens, a rally could follow.

Interestingly, the price reaction has been stable. After touching support in December, ETH bounced back a little. However, it is still stuck around the EMA and the broken downward trendline. The volume was also dropping, which showed that traders were not very sure about it.

If the pair stays above the EMA, ETH could go toward $4,000 or higher. However, if it breaks below, it could go lower. Analysts like Ted Pillows suggest waiting for confirmation of momentum, as things may get more volatile in the next few weeks.