Bitcoin Price Prediction as Goldman Sachs, Citi Boosts Crude Oil Forecast

Bitcoin price was little changed on Monday morning. This happened as market participants waited for the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday this week. It also wavered as Citigroup and Goldman Sachs analysts boosted their oil forecast for the year.

Bitcoin Price May Be Impacted as Goldman Sachs and Citi Boosts Oil Forecast

Analysts at Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have boosted their crude oil forecasts for the year. Goldman, the most prominent name in Wall Street, expects that oil will average $90 a barrel in Q4. Conversely, Citi expects it to average $100 and $95 in the second and third quarters, respectively.

Most analysts believe that the ongoing Iran war will lead to a substantial inventory draw as countries seek to lower prices at the pump. The OECD has already pledged to release 400 million barrels this year, the biggest release in years.

If these analysts are accurate, it means that consumer inflation will remain at an elevated level in the foreseeable future.

The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed from 2.3% in February to 3.3% in March. This recent report highlights a significant spike in inflationary pressure.

Also, most analysts believe that the price will remain at an elevated level. For example, the OECD expects that the figure will rise to 4.2% this year.

Bitcoin is widely considered a risky asset. This means that it does well when the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. This usually pushes people to embrace a risk-on sentiment. As such, Bitcoin price may drop if oil prices continue rising as analysts predict.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup boosted their crude oil forecasts this week. This change comes as the Federal Reserve prepares to deliver its third interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Economists polled by Reuters are certain that the Fed will leave rates unchanged this week. Similarly, odds that the bank will do this have jumped to near 100% on Polymarket and Kalshi.

Notably, officials believe that the bank will hint that it will maintain the status quo in the foreseeable future as officials observe the impact of the war on inflation and the labour market.

Other central banks like the ECB, BoJ, and BoE will also deliver their decisions this week. Their impact on the Bitcoin market, however, is usually limited.

The Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting comes at a time when demand for Bitcoin ETFs, especially BlackRock’s IBIT, is soaring.

Data shows that these funds have added over $2.4 billion this month so far. This means that they may cross the $3 billion mark by the end of April. The futures open interest has also continued rising in the past few weeks.

At the same time, traders are focusing on any new progress on the Iran war. According to Axios, Iran has made an offer to the United States. Such an order would see it reopen the Strait of Hormuz and then postpone any new talks on the nuclear program.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

The daily timeframe chart shows that Bitcoin price has been in a slow uptrend in the past few weeks. It is now hovering at its highest point since February 3rd.

The price jumped above the crucial resistance level of $76,035, marking its highest point since March 17. This movement successfully cleared the neckline of the double-bottom pattern..

The coin has jumped above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Also, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has jumped to 26, a sign that the momentum is continuing.

Therefore, the coin will likely continue rising as bulls target the next 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $85,150. A move above that price will point to more gains, potentially to the 50% retracement point at $93,000.

The bullish Bitcoin price forecast will become invalid if it moves below the important support level at $70,000.