XRP ETF Approval Odds Soar to 83%—Is a $99 Surge Incoming?

• Polymarket bettors assign an 83% chance of XRP ETF approval by July 2025.
• Grayscale, Bitwise, and other firms push for an XRP ETF amid rising demand.
• XRP’s breakout mirrors 2017, with analysts eyeing a potential $99 surge.

Polymarket data shows that traders now assign an 83% chance of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved by July 2025.

The surge in optimism follows a wave of filings from major asset managers, including Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and 21Shares. Grayscale has also moved to convert its XRP Trust into an ETF, adding further momentum to the speculation.

Wall Street Eyes XRP as ETF Filings Multiply

Polymarket bettors have steadily increased their wagers on an XRP ETF approval, pushing the probability 19% higher in just a week. This optimism coincides with Grayscale’s bold move to convert its XRP Trust into an ETF.

83% odds for Ripple ETF in 2025. Source: Polymarket

The asset manager filed a 19b-4 application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Jan. 30, proposing to list its XRP ETF on NYSE Arca.

Grayscale’s XRP Trust holds over $16 Million in assets, making it one of the largest institutional products linked to XRP.

The race to launch an XRP ETF has intensified, with CoinShares, ProShares, REX Shares, and Bitwise also submitting applications.

These filings follow the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which triggered major institutional inflows.

XRP Price Reacts—Could a 2,900% Rally be Next?

XRP price is making waves again, and traders can’t ignore the eerie similarities to its explosive 2017 breakout.

The token is currently holding strong at $3.02, with speculation around an XRP ETF fueling fresh momentum.

Crypto analyst Javon Marks believes XRP has just broken out of a massive pattern—one that’s more than double the size of its 2017 setup.

Back then, the token skyrocketed 2,900%, hitting an all-time high of $3.84 in just months. Marks suggests that if history repeats itself, XRP could be looking at a run toward $99—a staggering 2,700% gain from current levels.

Meanwhile, technical indicators show key resistance at $3.34, a level XRP must break to challenge its 2018 all-time high of $3.84. Analysts predict that XRP could test the $4 mark by mid-February if momentum continues.

If momentum keeps building, hitting $4 by mid-February isn’t out of the question. With Polymarket odds for an XRP ETF approval at 83%, institutional money could be the final push XRP needs to make history again.

Is an XRP ETF Closer Than We Think?

XRP’s ETF hopes once seemed dead under Biden’s SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who pushed back against crypto-friendly policies.

But now, things are shifting fast. With Trump back in office and Mark Uyeda leading the SEC, many believe the crypto crackdown could ease, making way for more ETF approvals.

Ripple Labs President Monica Long added fuel to the speculation in Jan., saying an XRP ETF could soon be a reality. Meanwhile, FOX Business journalist Eleanor Terrett hinted that more ETF filings are on the way, reinforcing expectations that regulators could soften their stance on crypto funds.

The SEC’s recent closed-door meeting on Ripple’s legal case has also raised eyebrows. While no details have emerged, some believe a resolution could clear the way for an XRP ETF. If that happens, XRP could be the next big name in the ETF boom.

Polymarket odds peaked at 89% following Trump’s inauguration, but later cooled to 82% after the SEC’s internal discussions on Ripple.

If regulatory tailwinds persist, XRP could be the next crypto asset to enter the ETF market. Now, all eyes are on the SEC’s next move—will it approve an XRP ETF by July?

Disclaimer

In this article, the views, and opinions stated by the author, or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.