Will Bitcoin Continue Its August Pattern or Break It?

Key Insights :

• Every cycle, August after a halving year, Bitcoin price delivered big returns.
• It could be time to buy the dip as whales continue buying the BTC while retail is scared.
• Total crypto exchange volume hit $1.7 trillion in July, the highest since February.

Bitcoin (BTC) was threatening to fall below the $110K support as the price continued to crash in the midst of uncertainty. The 50% retracement level for the price of BTC is aligned with $110,800K.

When writing, the Bitcoin price was at $112,788, aligning with the bigger crypto market cap. It had dropped to $3.64 trillion from a high of $4 trillion in less than a week.

BTC was, however, presenting an opportunity to invest. Institutions and whales were lined up following the popularity gained after Trump’s report on crypto.

Is Bitcoin Price Setting Up For Repetition?

Bitcoin price has historically seen green months in August in the years after the BTC halving, with these periods registering additions. For 2013, BTC gained 30.42%, while 2017 and 2021 saw 65.32% and 13.8% respectively.

August of 2024 also sparked the start of a rally that went all the way to the last quarter. Since BTC had a 2024 halving, “Will this August continue this pattern or break it?”

When approaching this on a long-term lens, the price point was great to invest. The previous break above $110K turned the level into support, propelling BTC to its recent new ATH of about $123,800.

On a short-term trade perspective, the ‘buy’ idea was far-fetched. That indicates that long positions need to wait, especially on derivative and decentralized markets. Here, traders utilize leverage and borrowing.

In terms of quarterly performance, BTC was already up by 6.46% in Q3, but there were still two months remaining. This could boost its gains in Q4. This is because, since Bitcoin’s inception, among all green Q3s, only 2018 was followed by a red Q4.

Why It Could Be Time to Buy Bitcoin?

Still aligning with the potential repetition, Bitcoin price drawdown analysis showed a 7% drop from its ATH. Given the historical data, reversals happened when the drawdown reached or surpassed 16%.

Best opportunities took place at 24% discount. That said, BTC price was in a wait-and-see moment, but traders showed signs of getting interested.

A whale or an institution, however, decided not to wait. Per Vivek Sen on X (formerly Twitter), their wallet had been buying 300 Bitcoin valued at $33 million daily. This seconded that the current levels were also great discounts given BTC’s long-term potential.

According to Ali Charts on X, the biggest accumulation levels below the price were about 111.1K BTC and were around the $107K. The prices above the price were 88.19K BTC at the $117,400 level, which further identified the current price as a better entry.

As the activity of the whale/institution potentially signaled a move that was brewing, volume was also rising.

Total Crypto Exchange Volume

The total crypto exchange volume hit $1.7 trillion, a shift from the drop in the last few months. Historical data showed that August had been characterized by low volume, but things changed.

The data from Binance, Bitget, ByBit, Upbit, Coinbase, and 34 other exchanges hint at the changing dynamics. These changes could have stemmed from the wider crypto adoption, even by governments, leading to the high average volume.

Finally, BTC price could ape the previous months of August following a halving year or also fail to respect. The asset failed to register a green Q4 in 2018, even after a green Q3. Historically, this scenario has been succeeded by a positive last quarter of the year.

That said, traders needed to exercise patience now that the price had not made a 16% discount from the ATH.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.