Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Broken? Analyst Makes Shocking Revelation

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital has addressed growing concerns about whether the Bitcoin four-year cycle is broken or dead. The analyst conducted a detailed examination of current market conditions in comparison to historical patterns.

Questions about the four-year cycle intensified after Bitcoin pulled back from its October highs. Some market observers suggested the cycle had deviated from historical norms.

Rekt Capital’s analysis shows the cycle remains on track with previous patterns.

Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Began Fresh in January 2025

The analyst posted in January 2025 that a new four-year cycle had started. Each four-year cycle takes four full years to develop, meaning discussions about breaking the cycle are premature only months into the new cycle.

Rekt mentioned that the current cycle entered candle one in January 2025, making 2025 the peak year of the bull market. Each subsequent candle follows a predictable pattern across the four-year timeframe.

Candle two brings bear market acceleration. Candle three is the bottoming-out period. These patterns have repeated across every Bitcoin cycle without fail.

The analyst noted that discussing the cycle as dead in April and May 2025 was premature. The market was only a few months into the first candle of a new four-year cycle at that time.

Peak Timing Aligns With 518-Day Post-Halving Pattern

Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin historically peaks around 518 days after the halving event. The 2017 cycle saw the peak occur at this exact timeframe. The 2021 cycle extended slightly to 550 days post-halving.

Using these historical ranges, a 518-day peak would place the top in mid-September. A 550-day peak would land in mid-October. The actual market action saw Bitcoin reach its peak in early October.

The early October peak occurred at worst as the bull market top, or at best as a local high. Either scenario falls within the historical range, confirming the cycle remains intact.

The analyst dismissed theories about cycle lengthening. Some investors expected the cycle to extend much further. Rekt Capital argued that any lengthening would be minimal, at most around 30 days.

Bitcoin Needs to Close Above 93.5k for Green Candle

The current four-year cycle level sits at 93.5k. Historical patterns indicate that candle one must close as green, meaning it must be above the starting level. This requires Bitcoin to maintain support above 93.5k by year-end.

Every previous cycle saw candle one close as green. Candle two is where the pullback and acceleration of the bear market occur. The market is currently attempting to turn candle four resistance into candle one support.

The situation mirrors previous cycles. Candle four resistance became candle one support, which held temporarily. The breakdown into bear market acceleration came during candle two, not candle one.

Diminishing returns appear across each cycle. The gains in each successive cycle are smaller than the previous one. This pattern remains consistent and does not invalidate the four-year cycle structure.

Bear Market Acceleration Expected in 2026

Early 2026 or Q2 2026 could see the breakdown from 93.5k into bear market acceleration. This would align perfectly with the candle’s two-phase of the four-year cycle.

The bear market acceleration phase in candle two has happened consistently across previous cycles. The pattern shows Bitcoin pulling back from the bull market peak during this period.

Previous cycles developed three-year resistances before candle four broke through. Candles one, two, and three created a ceiling that held for approximately three years. The current cycle appears poised to create a similar resistance around 100k.

Bitcoin may reject from 100k for three years across candles one, two, and three. Candle three might not even reach back to 100k, making it a ceiling rather than a level that gets retested.

The bear market acceleration in 2026 would follow this exact pattern, according to Rekt.

Bitcoin Cycle Follows Dropping Returns Pattern

Dropping returns across cycles remains clear in the data. Each successive bull market produces smaller percentage gains than the previous one. This does not mean the cycle is broken.

The four-year cycle continues to play out as predicted earlier in 2025. The macro phases, timeline, and price action all align with historical patterns. Calling the cycle dead or broken contradicts the evidence, according to the analyst.

Rekt stated the cycle appears to be followed “quite perfectly.” Investors expecting the cycle to fail may be disappointed as historical patterns continue to repeat with accuracy.