MSTR Stock Price Analysis as Saylor Hints at More Bitcoin Purchases

MSTR stock has stayed volatile since February. Bitcoin’s swings and weaker demand for DAT companies kept pressure on prices.

Strategy ended the week at $128, down sharply from the all-time high of $542. This pressure may continue this week as Michael Saylor hinted of more Bitcoin purchases.

Michael Saylor Hints at More Bitcoin Purchases

MSTR stock price will be in the spotlight when the market opens on Monday as investors react to the new Bitcoin purchases. In an X post today, April 12, Saylor hinted that the company made a big purchase last week, saying “Think Bigger.”

Saylor often provides hints on whether the company bought Bitcoin in the previous week in an X post every Sunday. It bought 4,871 BTC in the previous week, bringing its total holdings to 766,970, which are worth over $54 billion. It has suffered a 5.4% loss since it started its accumulation.

Strategy has more room to keep buying Bitcoin in the foreseeable future. For example, the management has launched an at-the-market (ATM) for the STRK preferred shares and the common shares.

The main challenge for this approach is that investors are sure of more dilution in the coming years. Dilution happens when a company increases the number of outstanding shares, thus reducing the ownership stake of existing investors.

Strategy’s outstanding shares have surged in recent years. They climbed from 70 million in 2021 to more than 325 million today.

For a long time, this dilution was understandable as the company’s shares used to trade at a premium. Today, this premium has evaporated, with the company trading with an mNAV of 0.78.

Bitcoin Price at Risk After US-Iran Talks Ended

The MSTR stock price may be at risk now that Bitcoin has lost momentum. BTC was trading at $71,100 on Sunday, down from $74,000 on Saturday.

Bitcoin dropped after U.S.–Iran ceasefire talks failed. Both sides held firm positions, causing market uncertainty.

Iran has re-entered the negotiations with an advantage it did not have before the war started: its control of the Strait of Hormuz. It has also demonstrated that it can sustain a prolonged war. With this, reports are suggesting that it has thousands of ballistic missiles and drones.

The US, however, is under pressure as Israel had promised it that the war would be short. Data released on Friday showed that consumer inflation jumped to 3.4% in March from the previous 2.4%.

As such, there is a risk that the US-Iran war will restart, which will push crude oil prices higher. Bitcoin and other altcoins tend to underperform when investors are embracing a risk-off sentiment.

However, on the positive side, chances are that the two sides will resume talks as the ceasefire has another week to go.

MSTR Stock Price Prediction: Technical Analysis

Technical analysis points to a potential MSTR stock retreat in the near term. The daily timeframe chart shows that it has continued to consolidate in the past few months.

Strategy has dropped below all moving averages, a sign that the bears remains in control. Most notably, it has formed a bearish flag pattern, which is comprised of a vertical line and a horizontal channel.

It has dropped below the important support level at $232, its lowest level in February and April last year. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral level at 50.

MSTR stock faces a likely bearish breakdown. Prices could fall toward the year-to-date low of $103, last seen in February. A drop below that price will point to more downside, potentially to the psychological level at $80.