Nvidia Stock Forecast for September: Top Catalysts to Watch

Nvidia stock has wavered and underperformed the market in August, even after the company published strong financial results. NVDA was trading at $217, down by nearly 6% from its highest point this month. This article explores some of the top catalysts that may drive the shares in September.

Nvidia Stock to React to Key AI Earnings

NVDA stock retreated sharply, even after the company published strong financial results and boosted its forward guidance. Its revenue surged to over $96 billion in the second quarter, much higher than the $92 billion it had guided before.

Nvidia also boosted its forward guidance, with management signaling that its third-quarter revenue would jump to $106 billion. This guidance excluded any potential Chinese business, meaning that its real figures will be higher than expected.

Focus now shifts to the upcoming earnings of some of the biggest companies in the artificial intelligence industry. Broadcom, the $1.75 trillion juggernaut, will release its numbers on Tuesday this week. These are important results because of its large partnership with OpenAI. Recently, OpenAI announced that its Jalapeno chip, developed in collaboration with Broadcom, outperformed Nvidia’s Blackwell on some key metrics.

After that, Oracle, another important company, will release its numbers on Friday. Oracle has a long relationship with Nvidia and is part of the Project Stargate that is seeking to spend $500 billion in US data centers.

The other top company to watch will be Micron, the third-biggest firm in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) industry. It will release its results on September 30th, providing more color about its business and the industry.

NVDA Stock to React to Xi Jinping US Visit

The other important catalyst that may move Nvidia shares in September is the upcoming trip by Xi Jinping to the United States. This will be his first official visit to the country in years. He will seek to improve relations with the United States and comes a few months after Trump visited China.

Nvidia will likely be in the spotlight during this trip because the two leaders will likely talk about the AI industry. In a recent statement, Nvidia has started shipping a small number of H200 chips to the country. However, management’s guidance indicated that it will exclude these sales from its forecast.

A deal allowing Nvidia to ship its most advanced chips to China would be a major catalyst for the company given the size of the market.

Fed Decision and US Macro Data

Nvidia stock will also react to macro events from the United States. One of them will be the upcoming nonfarm payrolls (NFP) and consumer inflation numbers. These numbers will help the Fed when making its interest rate decision.

Odds that the Fed will hike its rates on September 15 have risen after last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium. In his speech last week, Kevin Warsh noted that inflation remains at an elevated level, which may demand a rate hike. Such a move would have a negative impact on Nvidia.

Nvidia Stock Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that NVDA stock jumped to a high of $230 before pulling back to the current $218. This retreat is happening as the stock attempts to fill the gap it formed after its earnings report.

The stock has dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. On the positive side, it remains above the important support level of $214, which was its high in June and July. Therefore, the stock will likely remain on edge in September. The key support and resistance levels to watch will be $200 and $236.