Tesla Stock Forecast Ahead of Q3 Delivery Data, Roadster Launch

Tesla stock has dropped to a crucial support level as investors wait for some major developments from the company. It slipped to $372 in the premarket session, a few points below this month’s high of $384.

Tesla Stock to React to Q3 Delivery Data

One of the most important catalysts for Tesla shares is its upcoming data on the number of vehicles that it delivered this quarter. It will release these numbers on October 2nd, helping investors predict its revenue growth.

The company’s deliveries have been mixed this year. Its first quarter figures showed that it sold 358,023 units, much lower than the 370,000 vehicles that analysts were expecting. This situation changed in the second quarter when the management reported deliveries of over 480,000 vehicles.

Analysts have a mixed estimate on its Q3 deliveries. Goldman Sachs analysts expect the figure to come in at around 435,000, lower than the Wall Street target of over 450k.

Tesla’s deliveries may continue to rise in the coming months for several reasons. One of them is that the US-Iran war has pushed crude oil prices higher. Brent and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) jumped to $101 and $95 on Monday. Diesel has jumped to a record high, while gasoline is slowly approaching $5 a gallon.

Therefore, these developments may push more customers to embrace EVs in the coming years. Indeed, a recent report showed that many people in Europe are moving to these vehicles, with deliveries in key countries like Germany rising.

Tesla may also gain market share in the trucking industry, where it launched its semi truck last week. This truck has now entered full production and boasts of a 500 mile (805km) range. While it is more expensive than diesel trucks, its cost of operations will be much lower, especially if diesel prices keep surging.

In preparation for the launch, Tesla also launched Megacharger, enabling drivers to get back on the road within 30 minutes.

Tesla to Release its Roadster Vehicle

The other important driver for Tesla shares is the upcoming Roadster release on October 1. Tesla will hold its event in Waco, Texas, where it will showcase its features and potential new pricing.

When Tesla unveiled the vehicle in 2019, it said that the base model would sell for $200,000, with the Founders edition going for $250,000. The latter will have a limited production of 1,000 vehicles.

Most recently, Tesla has reopened its reservations portal, where one pays $5,000 upfront and then wires an additional $45,000.

These events come also as Tesla prepares to publish the third-quarter earnings report. Analysts expect these numbers to show that its quarterly revenue dropped by 2.21% in the third quarter to $27.47 billion. The annual decline is due to the company’s solid Q3 last year, as customers rushed to buy ahead of the federal tax credit’s expiration.

Tesla Stock Price Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows that the TSLA stock has wavered in the past few days after finding substantial resistance at $394. It has now formed a bearish engulfing pattern, which happens when a big bearish candle covers a smaller bullish one fully. This pattern normally leads to a strong bearish reversal.

At the same time, the stock has formed a double-top-like pattern at $383 and a neckline at $353, its lowest level on September 15. Therefore, there is a risk that the stock will drop further, potentially to the key support level of $300. A move above the key resistance level of $383 will invalidate the bearish outlook.