Can XRP Price Rally to $10 if the SEC Approves Ripple ETFs by Year-End?

Key Insights:

• XRP ETF approval odds raised to 85%, with key decisions expected by October 2025.
• MACRO channel breakout suggested XRP price could rally between $17 and $55 this cycle.
• Analysts forecast XRP could reach $10 if technical structure and ETF alignments hold.

XRP price could be on the verge of a major price rally, with analysts highlighting technical breakouts and increasing odds of ETF approval in the United States.

As the SEC delays its decision on Ripple ETF applications, analysts and institutional sentiment are converging around a bullish thesis.

With current market conditions improving and historical price patterns repeating, Ripple token may

be preparing for a surge to as high as $10, if regulatory clarity is achieved.

XRP Price Outlook Strengthens as ETF Approval Odds Hit 85%

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently postponed its decision on the Franklin Templeton XRP ETF application, moving the deadline to June 17.

However, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has raised the probability of final approval to 85% by the fourth quarter of 2025.

He suggested that the current delay is procedural and that the SEC may act before the final October deadline.

Seyffart, speaking with journalist Eleanor Terrett, stated that the newly appointed SEC Chair Paul Atkins could play a key role in advancing approval.

The ongoing Ripple lawsuit is also expected to conclude within the year, which would remove a major hurdle for XRP-based ETFs in the U.S.

This development comes amid the early success of international Ripple ETF products.

Teucrium’s leveraged XRP ETF has already attracted $55 Million in net assets within its first month of trading. Moreover, a Brazil-listed Ripple ETF has also gained investor traction.

Historical Pattern Suggests XRP Price Could Reach $9–$10

A long-term chart shared by Cryptollica revealed that XRP price may be preparing to replicate its 2017 breakout pattern.

On the two-week timeframe, top altcoin price appeared to be exiting a multi-year compression zone that mirrors the structure seen before its last parabolic rally.

If the historical setup holds, the next move could take XRP price into the $9 to $10 range.

The chart identifies the $1.95 level as a major trigger zone. A decisive breakout above this region could confirm the pattern and initiate the next leg upward.

This technical setup is supported by years of consolidation and support-building, positioning XRP for a potential vertical surge in the coming months.

Breakout Could Support Ripple Move to $55

Complementing this view, EGRAG Crypto shared a broader macro channel breakout structure that spans several years of XRP price action.

According to his analysis, XRP price is now printing “Candle number 5” in a long-term cycle, previously followed by a powerful monthly candle.

The measured move from this breakout targets a high of $55, with an initial target zone of $17.

EGRAG believed XRP price could surge if bullish momentum persists, particularly amid growing interest in Ripple ETF products.

He stated that he has a target of $27 but intends to reduce exposure gradually as the price climbed.

The macro channel breakout reinforces the long-term structure of XRP price cycles, with added support from renewed investor sentiment.

Ripple Held Key Levels as Bulls Eye Further Gains

Despite the SEC delay, Ripple has maintained stability. XRP was trading near $2.23 while writing this report.

Bulls have retained control after a brief pullback from $2.30, with the asset trending inside the upper Bollinger Band range. This suggests ongoing buying pressure and room for further gains.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, signaling moderate momentum.

If XRP holds above the middle Bollinger Band, the next resistance lies at $2.61. A breakout at that level could open the path to $3 and beyond.

With the approval odds for ETF applications increasing and technical breakout patterns lined up, analysts thought that XRP might be ready for a big run in the second half of this year.

Early entrants are closely observing price patterns as they wait for the SEC decision that should be out in October.

Disclaimer

In this article, the views, and opinions stated by the author, or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.