Cardano ETF Odds Surge Ahead of SEC Decision on May 29

Key Insights:

• SEC decision on Cardano ETF set for May 29.
• Approval odds reach all-time high of 71%.
• The market shows bullish sentiment ahead of the verdict.

The chances of the SEC approving a Cardano ETF are now at an all-time peak of 71%. Investors and traders show growing confidence because the upcoming regulatory rules have sparked more interest in Cardano.

SEC Decision Date and Current Market Sentiment

The Cardano ETF will find out whether it is approved, denied or put on hold when the SEC decides on Thursday, May 29. Data from Polymarket shows approval chances are now at 71%, breaking the previous record. This surge in odds suggests that market participants are optimistic about the ETF gaining regulatory approval.

The approval of an ETF could make Cardano ($ADA) appear as a reliable investment to institutions and regular users. ETFs enable people to invest in Cardano without having to hold its cryptocurrency, making it easier for investors.

The regulatory clarity provided by an ETF approval is often seen as a positive development in the cryptocurrency industry. Reduced uncertainty can encourage broader adoption by lowering perceived risks for investors. Historical trends show that anticipation or approval of ETFs can lead to price increases as demand grows.

Grayscale’s Role and ETF Application Timeline

Earlier this year, Grayscale, a digital asset manager, applied to list a Cardano ETF. SEC approved the application on February 24.  The SEC now has until October 22 to make a decision. Nevertheless, the agency may choose to reschedule or extend the review timeline multiple times.

On May 29, the SEC will have to announce its initial decision, which is an important step. Spot Cardano ETFs, if approved, will give investors a new way to hold ADA without using a cryptocurrency exchange. The investors own the shares of the ETF, and the fund takes care of managing and securing the held cryptocurrency.

Interest groups have taken note of this development. If a Cardano ETF is created, more individuals might find it easier and more interesting to invest in ADA.

Technical Outlook and Price Targets

With the rising chance of Cardano ETF listing, analysts are highlighting positive trends in the market. The current SolbergInvest report says that Cardano’s price of $0.77 indicates it could rise further. After a breakout, analysts look at important price targets.

Conservative price targets range from $1.3 to $1.5, which are considered realistic near-term goals if bullish momentum continues. The main target stands at approximately $1.9, while an optimistic target approaches $2.5, assuming sustained buying pressure and favorable market conditions.

The technical setup includes a recovery phase after a prolonged period of consolidation since mid-2022. Based on this, Cardano could surge in the future. Breakouts can be better confirmed if shorter EMAs cross higher EMAs after moving above the channel.

Futures Markets and Latest Price Trend

The data from futures markets is in favor of the increasingly bullish view. Data from the 90-day CVD suggests takers are driving the increase in buy pressure for Cardano futures. The positive shifts and uptrend in the market are supported by the latest increase in buying, as shown by the green bars on the chart.

On the 4-hour chart, Cardano is approaching the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a potential upward move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 54.56, suggesting steady buying momentum without reaching overbought levels.

However, based on the latest Cardano price forecast, the price is expected to increase by 27.73%, reaching approximately $0.9819 by June 25, 2025. Technical indicators indicate a bullish sentiment at present, while the Fear & Greed Index stands at 74, reflecting a state of greed. Over the past 30 days, Cardano has experienced 14 green days (47%) with a price volatility of 6.17%.

Disclaimer

In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.