Nvidia Shares Climb 3% Ahead of Q1 Earnings Call at 5 PM EDT

Key Insights:

• Nvidia stock closed at $135.50, up 3.21%, ahead of its fiscal Q1 2025 earnings report on May 28.
• Analysts expect Q1 revenue of $43.3B and EPS of $0.73 as the market awaits Nvidia’s guidance.
• U.S. export restrictions and a $5.5B write-down pressure Nvidia’s China operations ahead of earnings.

Nvidia stock closed at $135.50 on May 27, up 3.21%, before the company’s fiscal Q1 2025 earnings report on May 28. Shares continued their upward move in early pre-market trading at 6:49 AM EDT, rising another 0.61% to $136.32. Expectations are high, but the focus is on how U.S. export restrictions and Nvidia’s push to grow through global partnerships will affect the company.

Stock Moves Higher with Broader Market Momentum

Nvidia shares rose 3.21% on Tuesday to close at $135.50 as investors bet on the chipmaker’s earnings report. U.S. stock futures edged lower early Wednesday, even as this move came.

S&P 500 futures fell 5.50 points (-0.09%) to 5,928.75 and Dow Jones futures declined 60 points (-0.14%) to 42,350.00. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 8 points (-0.04%) to 21,452.50. While these are slight losses in broader futures, Nvidia was still strong in early trading.

After markets close on May 28, the company will report Q1 results with the earnings call at 5:00 PM EDT. Revenue is expected to be $43.3 billion, up 66% year over year, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.73. Nvidia’s outsized influence on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 means the outcome could set the tone for the broader market.

Export Limits Force Strategic Shift in China

Nvidia has been under pressure from new U.S. export controls on its advanced AI chips, including the H20 model. The company also warned of a $5.5 billion write-down related to inventory it can’t sell. Its access to one of its largest markets has been reduced by these curbs.

Nvidia is developing a new AI chipset for China based on its Blackwell architecture, in response. The restricted H20 will be priced lower than this chip, which will use standard GDDR7 memory. The move is meant to keep market share and meet U.S. rules.

Nvidia once expected to make $15 billion a year in the China market. Under current restrictions, the company has stepped back from those sales, CEO Jensen Huang said. However, the launch of compliant hardware may help to cushion that blow in coming quarters.

Analysts Watch for Guidance Amid Uncertainty

Not only are investors looking at Q1 results, but also Nvidia’s Q2 outlook. Consensus estimates are for Q2 revenue of $45.9 billion, but some analysts think guidance will come in lower, around $41 billion. These lower forecasts are due to continued uncertainty on export policies and demand clarity.

But most analysts are still bullish on the stock, despite the caution. Ahead of earnings, Nvidia maintained positive ratings from Piper Sandler and Bank of America. At $3.3 trillion, the company is the second-largest public firm after Microsoft.

Nvidia’s stock is little changed for the year after a poor start to 2025. Earlier, the stock was pressured by concerns over AI demand cycles and regulatory limits, but recent global activity has revived interest. Now investors want to know how Nvidia will keep growing through new deals and AI developments.

Saudi AI Deal Offers Long-Term Revenue Support

Earlier this month, Nvidia struck a multi-billion dollar deal with Humain, a Saudi-backed firm building a large AI data center. The deal, which could generate $7 billion in orders, may help to offset short-term losses from China. The first phase is 18,000 Blackwell GPUs worth about $700 million.

Analysts see the Blackwell chip line as a big growth driver in fiscal 2026. Nvidia’s full-year revenue could hit $198.8 billion if major deals and product demand hold, according to forecasts. The Saudi agreement has been approved by the U.S. government, which reduces the potential export risks for this initiative.

But not all investors are so sanguine. Nvidia is the latest stock to attract hedge fund manager Michael Burry, who has taken a bearish position by buying put options on the stock. Some have worried about competition from Huawei and custom chips from cloud firms such as Microsoft and Google.

Ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release, the market is watching to see if the company can adjust to new trade rules and keep demand up. The results and forward guidance will probably move the broader tech market, given the weight in key stock indexes.

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