Ethereum Price Bulls Target $3.6K as ETF Investors Sit on Deep Losses

Key Insights:

• Ethereum Price bulls struggle at 200-day SMA resistance near $3,500.
• ETH ETF investors face 21% average unrealized losses.
• Spot ETF inflows rise despite weak ETF price impact.

Ethereum is showing signs of recovery, targeting resistance near $3,600. However, most ETF investors from BlackRock and Fidelity remain down 21% on average, as price still trades well below their cost basis despite recent inflows.

Spot ETF Investors in the Red Despite Ethereum Price Bounce

Ethereum (ETH) has seen a steady price recovery over the past month, gaining more than 44% since hitting a 2025 low of $1,472 on April 9. However, despite the recent rebound, most holders of BlackRock and Fidelity spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) remain deep in unrealized losses.

Glassnode’s May 29 report estimated the average spot ETH ETF investor is down approximately 21%. Ethereum traded at $2,601 at press time, while the cost basis for BlackRock’s fund stood at $3,300. Fidelity investors entered at a higher price of $3,500.

“Net outflows accelerated when ETH dropped below these ETF cost-basis levels,” Glassnode noted, highlighting August 2024, Jan. 2025, and March 2025 as key turning points.

Despite this, ETF products have recorded nine consecutive days of inflows totaling $435.6 million since May 16, signaling renewed institutional interest. The catalyst appears linked to a federal court ruling on May 28, which blocked most of former President Donald Trump’s global import tariffs—a development that has cooled market uncertainty.

Rekt Capital and Faibik Note Key Resistance Levels

Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that ETH has been “successfully retesting black as support for the past few weeks,” referencing a weekly structure that mirrors early 2024. According to a May 13 post, Ethereum’s latest weekly close sat directly on top of a prior consolidation zone.

“There is a scenario where just a small dip would suffice,” Rekt Capital wrote, suggesting a continuation of the green-circled support zone near $2,468—so long as that level holds.

In contrast, Captain Faibik focused on the resistance overhead. In a May 29 post, Faibik highlighted that Ethereum bulls “are struggling to break through the 200-day SMA resistance,” placing critical upside targets between $3,500 and $3,600.

A break above that long-term moving average could validate a broader trend reversal, with renewed momentum toward December’s high of $4,007. ETH last traded above $3,000 on Feb. 2 before entering a downtrend triggered by the Trump administration’s new tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods.

ETF Impact Underwhelms, But Growth Phases Emerge

Glassnode downplayed the overall impact of Ethereum ETFs on price action, citing their relatively small presence in spot markets.

“The Ethereum ETFs initially accounted for just ±1.5% of the trade volume in spot markets,” the firm stated, describing the launch reception as tepid. This figure briefly rose to 2.5% during November 2024, when Trump’s election victory triggered a crypto-wide rally that saw ETH top $4,000.

That volume influence has since declined back toward 1.5%, reinforcing the view that ETFs alone have not driven price action. Instead, macro events, including U.S. trade policy and broader risk sentiment, have played a larger role.

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s ETFs have brought in $2.94 billion in net inflows since their July 23 launch, when ETH traded around $3,536. But as the report points out, this has not translated into sustained price strength.

Bulls Aim for $3.6K, But Ethereum Price Structure Remains Fragile

Despite modest ETF influence, Ethereum’s current market structure presents a complex setup.

The token remains trapped below key moving averages but continues to print higher lows. With net inflows rising and broader market sentiment improving, the $3,000–$3,600 range has re-emerged as the key upside target.

Faibik and Rekt Capital both highlighted price zones to monitor—$2,468 for support and $3,500+ for breakout confirmation.

If ETH clears its 200-day SMA resistance, the next challenge will be regaining its average ETF investor cost basis. Until then, most institutional investors remain underwater, and any bullish breakout must contend with long-term holders looking to break even.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.