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Bitcoin surged past $115,000 following optimism from US-China trade talks. However, it’s now struggling to break through that resistance level as selling pressure mounts.
On-chain data indicate that the world’s largest cryptocurrency lacks the sustained strength to sustain the rally. However, market analysts believe that November has been the most bullish month for BTC. Thus, the odds favour the bulls.
Bitcoin Lacks Sustained Market Demand
According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, BTC is stabilizing as selling pressure subsides and overall profitability improves. However, the firm noted that network activity remains muted and market participation is selective.
This indicates a cautious and rangebound environment likely to persist until significant new demand enters the market. During October 2025, the Bitcoin futures open interest collapsed from $50 billion to $35 billion.
With the FOMC meeting kicking off today, October 28, investors are waiting on the sidelines. Market expectations are that Jerome Powell will announce a 25 bps Fed rate cut this week.
This could serve as a trigger for the Bitcoin and the altcoins rally to continue further in Q4. Speaking on the development, popular crypto analyst Ted Pillows noted:
Bitcoin Trades At Discount to Nasdaq, While Miners Outperform
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows highlighted lingering structural weaknesses in the crypto market after the October 10 crash.
He observed that traditional equity indices, such as the Nasdaq, continue to hit new highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to lag. It currently trades about 6% lower than its pre-crash level.
As per Pillows, this is a delayed or muted market response. He also warned that any potential weakness in equity markets could spill over into the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. This could lead to another significant unwinding of leveraged positions.
On the other hand, while the BTC price continues to struggle under the $115,000 resistance, miners are doing relatively well.
Bitcoin mining stocks are currently outperforming BTC, according to macro strategy platform ecoinometrics. Their strength isn’t driven by price momentum but by other market dynamics.
The platform noted that BTC miners have redirected part of their computing power toward artificial intelligence (AI) workloads. Thus, these AI-related shifts have helped miners stay afloat during market downturn conditions.
Bitcoin Price to Rally in November?
BTC ‘Uptober’ rally has been a bit disappointing, with BTC price up by 3% on the monthly chart. However, market analysts are optimistic, as November has historically been among the most bullish months for BTC.
Bitcoin has recorded gains in 8 of the last 12 Novembers. The average monthly increase during those periods was 46.02%.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that major market turning points have historically occurred during November and December. These months marked the cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021, as well as the cycle bottoms in 2018 and 2022.
He further added that the final two months of the year tend to be “eventful” for Bitcoin. It was characterized by heightened volatility and major market pivots, regardless of whether the broader sentiment leans bullish or bearish.
Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader stated that Bitcoin has entered what he calls its “favorite quarter.” He highlighted that Bitcoin delivered an 80% return in Q4 2024.
He also emphasized that current market conditions show a similar setup and opportunity. According to Merlijn, the pattern is not a matter of chance but a reflection of Bitcoin’s cyclical nature.
