Bitcoin Price Eyes $99K Bounce as December Fed Cut Bets Surge

Bitcoin price is making a short-term recovery as changes in the macro environment are again underway. Fresh labor data has boosted hopes for a December rate cut, with a positive impact on risk sentiment.

Analysts now describe a possible rebound towards the $99,000 zone ahead of any deeper trend decision.

Bitcoin Price Holds Support with Fed Cut Bets Rising

Bitcoin price is holding near $91,000-$93,000 range after a big drop in November. CME FedWatch data confirmed that rate-cut odds spiked above 50% after weaker job reports. The shift reflects renewed expectations of easier policy, which often improves crypto liquidity.

Weekly jobless claims increased to 232,000, indicating additional labor weakness. ADP data also shows that private employers are laying off workers through October. These reports added to the confidence in a December rate cut.

UBS economists are now looking for the FOMC to support another 25 bps cut. They have persistent softness in hiring and increasing layoffs.

Fed President Tom Barkin said the labor market may be weaker than the headline data suggests. He mentioned the slowdown in job postings and a softening of overall demand. Barkin also said inflation is above target but no longer rising. His comments add support to expectations of another policy adjustment.

Analyst Predicts a Bounce Toward $99,000 Zone

Analyst Ali posted a detailed chart of a potential rebound towards the $99,000 zone. His model picks out some obvious resistance points around $96,500 and $99,500.

He adds that any rebound will also be corrective until Bitcoin regains higher highs. The projection suggests a series of lower highs preceding a more significant breakdown.

Ali’s dotted path models short-term strength followed by renewed weakness to the $85,000-$83,000 range. He considers the current move a technical bounce due to oversold conditions.

BTC price is reacting to a multi-week support shelf around $89,000. Traders are now on the lookout to see if the recovery can continue before sellers replenish.

CoinMarketCap data showed Bitcoin trading at $91,700, up 1.6% over the past 24 hours. Volume remains elevated, indicating active positioning following the macro update.

Market participants are often quick to react to interest rate changes, especially when expectations shift sharply in a single session.

Bullish Divergence Pattern Indicates Potential Strength

Analyst Javon Marks identified a bullish divergence pattern, indicating a potential recovery. His chart suggests the price is forming new lows while the oscillator is forming higher lows. This structure is a classic reversal signal. Marks said this is usually followed by rallies breaking previous highs.

He pointed out a potential recovery of 20% into the $111,000 region if momentum remains strong. The divergence pattern depicts improving internal strength despite price weakness. Traders will frequently follow divergence signals during prolonged downtrends.

The divergence is evident in both price action and momentum indicators. Marks emphasized that the pattern holds as long as Bitcoin remains within the support trendline. If confirmed, the signal could be in tandem with improving macroeconomic conditions and a possible easing in December.

Market Structure Remains Mixed as Macro Shifts

Broader market conditions reveal a mix of caution and new optimism. Rate-cut odds are now just over 50%, with risk appetite improving. UBS expects more support for easing even with dissent among some Fed officials. They point to persistent economic softness and increased layoffs.

However, some officials are still cautious. Fed Presidents Raphael Bostic and Jeff Schmid have said that they are not open to additional cuts. They warn that too early easing may risk inflationary pressures.

Fed Governor Stephen Miran has supported a larger cut of 50 bps, demonstrating a clear division. The next FOMC minutes may reveal greater disunity.

Bitcoin’s technical structure remains mixed at key levels. According to Ali’s chart, the resistance levels were near $96,500 and $99,500. Mark’s divergence and potential strength above $111,000 if buyers gain any traction.

The current Bitcoin price behavior remains sensitive to policy expectations and changes in the macroeconomic environment.