Bitcoin Price Near Turning Point Amid Macro Top Warning by Analysts

Bitcoin price’s bullish momentum may be nearing exhaustion, according to multiple analysts tracking historical market cycles. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a substantial $524 million inflow this week. However, analysts warn that the cycle may resemble the peaks of 2018 and 2022.

Ali, a prominent on-chain analyst, suggested the top may already be in. “If this Bitcoin $BTC cycle mirrors 2015–2018 or 2018–2022, the top was on Oct. 26, and a macro downtrend may have already begun,” he wrote on X.

The statement reflected growing caution among traders. Bitcoin price hovered near the $103,000 level. It struggled to break higher despite strong demand from ETFs.

Bitcoin Price ETF Inflows Surge, But Macro Correction Fears Loom

Coin Bureau reported that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $524 million in inflows, the largest in over a month. Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, saw $107 million in outflows.

The divergence reinforced BTC’s dominance as institutional capital rotated toward what investors perceived as the safer crypto asset amid growing uncertainty. Yet, analysts warned that ETF inflows alone might not sustain upward momentum if historical patterns repeat.

Ali noted that while liquidity remains strong, technical patterns suggest a possible shift. “If we follow prior cycles, Bitcoin might already be entering the early stages of a macro correction,” he said.

Technical Pressure Mounts Around 365-Day Moving Average

The immediate test of Bitcoin price comes at its 365-day moving average. It’s a level historically tied to major directional shifts. Analyst Satoshi Stacker highlighted that BTC is once again testing this key support zone.

“This level has supported $BTC throughout the bull market, and previous bounces from it turned into major new uptrends,” Stacker posted. “However, the last time BTC fell below this level, it dropped -66% before bottoming.”

The metric has served as a reliable floor for bull markets in past cycles. Yet, falling below it has often signaled deeper retracements. Traders are now watching closely to see whether the Bitcoin price can defend this level amid increasing volatility.

Market Makers Build Longs for Bitcoin Price Near Range Lows

Trader CrypNuevo added another layer of context. Market makers may be quietly building long positions around range lows between $101,500 and $102,000.

“Wicks to the downside but price not progressing any further: MM is building longs,” he posted, noting that a short-term retest of the lower range could precede a rebound.

The trader linked potential upside to U.S. fiscal policy. They stated that liquidity injections tied to government reopening efforts could stabilize risk assets.

“U.S. Gov re-opens soon and is injecting liquidity to pay bills and goods,” he wrote. This implies that renewed spending could temporarily support crypto markets.

Binance Liquidity Remains Strong

Amid broader uncertainty, Ali pointed to Binance’s robust on-chain reserves. This may help prevent panic-driven selloffs.

“Feeling pretty safe trading on Binance,” he said. “Total reserves are holding near $120 billion, USDT reserves hit a new all-time high at $42.8 billion, and BTC holdings remain solid around 548,000 BTC.”

The data underscored that liquidity across major exchanges remains resilient despite shifting sentiment.

Stablecoin reserves at record highs typically indicate market participants are holding capital on exchanges, ready to deploy when volatility stabilizes.

Macro Context Adds Pressure

While technical levels dominate short-term focus, broader macro signals could influence the next phase of Bitcoin’s trajectory. The renewed discussion around U.S. fiscal spending, combined with ETF inflows and historical patterns, paints a mixed picture.

Traders must weigh robust liquidity against the possibility that Bitcoin’s cyclical rhythm may again be turning bearish. Ali’s warning about a potential macro top aligns with the idea that history often rhymes in crypto markets.

If October 26 marked the cycle’s high, the Bitcoin price has likely peaked. It may now enter a prolonged cooling phase. This mirrors the corrections seen in 2018 and 2022 after major rallies.

Traders Brace for a Volatile Finish to 2025

Bitcoin’s next move hinges on how it reacts to the 365-day moving average and whether inflows can offset selling pressure. A strong rebound from current levels could reinstate bullish momentum.

At the same time, a confirmed breakdown may validate the bearish outlook shared by analysts. As the market balances between ETF optimism and historical caution, the next few weeks could define the tone for 2025.

Traders remain divided: some see this as a consolidation before another leg higher, while others believe the market has already topped.

The final word rests with price action. History may not repeat exactly, but as many analysts noted this week, it often rhymes.