MSTR Stock Price Risks Grow as Metaplanet Posts $680 Million Loss

The MSTR stock price remained in a bear market on Monday as Bitcoin continued its recent sell-off, reaching a low of $87,780, down sharply from its all-time high of $126,300. Strategy was trading at $159.8, down by over 70% from its highest level in 2024.

Metaplanet Reported a Big Loss as Bitcoin Price Dived

One major bearish catalyst for the MSTR stock price is that Metaplanet, a company that has a similar business model, reported a big loss as the industry unraveled.

In a statement, the company said that its loss jumped to $680 million as its Bitcoin holdings dipped. Its loss attributable to its shareholders for the last fiscal year was over $351 million

Metaplanet has followed MicroStrategy’s playbook by accumulating Bitcoin, which the management believes will do well in the long term despite the ongoing jitters in the industry.

The company has now accumulated 35,102 coins, currently valued at over $3 billion. Unlike MicroStrategy, it is still operating at a premium to its net asset value, with the enterprise value-based metric remaining at 1.469.

Its results mean that Strategy will also release weak financial results on February 5. Indeed, the company has already hinted that it made a big loss last year as the Bitcoin price dropped.

In a recent note, Strategy said that it suffered a $17.4 billion unrealized loss on its digital assets in the fourth quarter and $5.4 billion in the last quarter of last year. The company also downgraded the earnings forecast for 2025.

Still, despite the challenges, Strategy has continued to accumulate Bitcoin aggressively as Michael Saylor and the management believe that the coin has more room to go in the future. It now holds 709,715 coins, currently worth $62 billion, exceeding its market capitalization of $47 billion.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis Points to More Downside

The MSTR stock price may continue to fall because technical analysis suggests Bitcoin has more downside to go. The three-day timeframe chart shows that the coin has formed a mini death cross, as the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have crossed.

The Bitcoin price has also formed a big bearish flag pattern. This pattern is made up of a vertical line that, in this case, extends from the all-time high of $126,300 to the low of $80,383. It is also made up of an ascending channel, and the coin is now on its lower side.

Therefore, the Bitcoin price will likely break down sharply, potentially to the key support level at $80,385. A drop below that level will point to more downside, potentially to $74,340, its lowest level in April last year.

If this drop occurs, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings will fall from the current $62.24 billion to over $52 billion, a $10 billion loss.

MSTR Stock Price Technical Analysis Also Points to a Crash

Technical analysis suggests that the MSTR stock price has formed numerous bearish chart patterns, pointing to more downside in the coming weeks.

The three-day chart shows that the stock has moved from a high of $455 in July last year to the current $159. It formed a mini death cross in December last year, as the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages crossed.

The stock moved below the key support level at $230, its lowest level in March 2024 and the neckline of the double-top pattern. It has remained below the Supertrend and the Ichimoku cloud indicators. Like Bitcoin, the MSTR stock price has formed a bearish flag pattern.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is that the stock continues to fall as sellers target the important support level at $100, about 37% below the current level. The bearish outlook will become invalid if it rises above the key resistance level at $200.