Bitcoin Price Upside Looks Limited, BTC Bulls Need to Defend $68,000

Amid US–Iran war fears and rising tensions, the Bitcoin price holds firm at $68,500. Geopolitical uncertainty keeps its support level intact.

Bulls have been struggling to push BTC past $70,000. BTC options data and on-chain indicators show the possibility of further downside risks going ahead.

Bitcoin Price Faces Downside Risk As Social Sentiment Tanks

Blockchain analytics firm Santiment reported that Bitcoin social sentiment has dropped to its weakest level in more than two months.

It shows a strong bearish sentiment among traders. According to Santiment, the bullish-to-bearish ratio has fallen to its lowest level since February 28, 2026.

However, analysts noted that roughly $6 billion in short positions remain vulnerable around the $72,500 Bitcoin price. This could also lead to a possibility of a short squeeze in the case BTC moves higher.

Despite the negative sentiment, on-chain data shows Bitcoin is still trading above its realized price. It shows the risk of further downside remains. Santiment added that geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainty continue to weigh on overall market optimism.

Bitcoin Price Faces Key Resistance

Over the past weekend, Bitcoin price and the rest of the crypto market showed strength despite geopolitical tensions. Although the bulls attempted a break above $70K, they failed to sustain the momentum ahead.

Popular analyst Crypto Patel cautioned that Bitcoin price reclaiming the $70,000 level does not yet confirm a bullish trend. According to Patel, Bitcoin continues to form lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. It shows that the broader market structure remains bearish.

The analyst identified $76,000 as the most recent lower high. He noted that failure to break above this level could lead to a potential decline toward $50,000. On the other hand, a breakout above $76,000 could push Bitcoin toward the $86,000–$91,000 range.

However, the analyst said a higher-timeframe close above $98,000 would be required to confirm a strong bullish trend. Until then, the Bitcoin price could face continuous selling pressure at every rise. Speaking on the development, Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff wrote:

BTC Options Data Downside Skew

Options market data suggests traders are increasingly hedging against downside risks in Bitcoin. This happens even as the Bitcoin price remains rangebound.

According to a recent report from Bitfinex, implied volatility in Bitcoin options is holding between 48% and 55%. At the same time, realized volatility remains relatively subdued. This divergence indicates that investors are paying a premium for downside protection.

Moreover, analysts also highlighted a negative gamma environment below $68,000. Market makers who sold downside protection face pressure if Bitcoin drops further. They may be forced to sell Bitcoin to hedge their exposure.

Such hedging activity could amplify selling pressure, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop. The report noted that if key support levels break, Bitcoin price could drop toward the $60,000 level.