Bitcoin Risks Breakdown as $91K Squeeze Looms Over Bulls

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin’s realized cap hits $872B, but investor activity declines.
• Short-term holders are underwater at $91K average buy-in.
• Powell’s tariff warning adds pressure to speculative assets like BTC.

BTC Struggles Under Resistance as Market Sentiment Cools

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $84,600 on Apr. 18 after failing to push past the $86,000 resistance for several sessions. Despite hitting an all-time high realized market cap of $872 billion, the cryptocurrency showed few signs of bullish continuation.

Data from Glassnode confirmed a 0.9% month-over-month growth in realized cap, its slowest pace in over a year. That figure reflects a growing disconnect between total capital invested and current investor appetite.

“Realized cap growth is positive, but subdued,” Glassnode wrote in an Apr. 17 post. “It reflects reduced inflow and a broader risk-off environment.”

Short-term holders added further weight to the bearish outlook. CryptoQuant reported their realized price stood at $91,600, well above spot levels. That puts most recent buyers in loss territory, increasing the risk of panic selling.

Profit-Taking Surges as RSI Stalls, Triangle Squeeze Builds

Glassnode’s profit/loss metric revealed a 40% drop in realized profits, suggesting many investors have already locked in gains. The data provider warned this pattern often precedes a market cooldown or consolidation phase.

Bitcoin trader Titan of Crypto flagged a tightening triangle pattern on the 1-hour chart. “Bitcoin Inflection Point,” he noted on Apr. 17. “RSI is above 50 and attempting to break resistance. A move is brewing.”

BTC remained trapped between $83,700 and $85,200, according to order flow trader Magus. Without a breakout above $85,000, the bullish thesis remains in question. Magus warned of long-term weakness if the range holds.

Rekt Capital added that BTC still trades below its 50-day exponential moving average. A daily close above the green resistance line and successful retest would mark the next bullish trigger, he said.

$74K–$88K Key Range as Sentiment Diverges

CryptoBusy spotted a descending triangle forming at $84,000, calling $74,000 the next key support. A breakout above $88,000 could trigger a rally toward $100,000, the account suggested.

Altcoin Sherpa, meanwhile, predicted volatility ahead. “I have this weird feeling that BTC either blasts through to 93K or dumps to high 70Ks in one go,” he wrote.

TedPillows believes BTC is in a “bottom formation phase” and tracking global money supply with a 108-day lag.

Macroeconomic Signals Mute Rate Cut Hopes

Adding pressure to Bitcoin’s near-term outlook was macro data from the United States. Initial jobless claims came in at 215,000—below the 225,000 forecast—highlighting ongoing labor market resilience.

The strong employment data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Apr. 16, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs will likely drive “higher inflation and slower growth,” adding the Fed had no plans for market bailouts or rate cuts.

“It’s too soon to consider rate reductions,” Powell emphasized, echoing earlier remarks from Apr. 4. His comments dampened expectations for monetary easing, typically bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin.

In contrast, the European Central Bank lowered its benchmark interest rate from 2.50% to 2.25%. The move marked its seventh rate cut since late 2022, showing diverging policy responses to global economic pressure.

Investors Brace for Volatility as BTC Faces Make-or-Break Zone

With BTC trading under $85,000 and short-term holders underwater, the market has entered a make-or-break phase. If bulls fail to reclaim the $88,000 resistance, downside risks to $74,000 increase.

For now, the realized cap milestone does little to change the broader caution. As profit-taking rises and Powell doubles down on a no-cut stance, Bitcoin’s next move may depend less on on-chain strength and more on external economic catalysts.

Smart money may be quietly positioning, but retail remains on edge—underscoring the uncertainty as April winds down.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not provide any financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.