Each Cycle Weaker? BTC Faces $159K Wall At 2Y SMA ×2.65

Key Insights:

• In the current cycle, Bitcoin fails to surpass the 2Y SMA ×2.65 band set near $159K.
• Long-term holders have added 339K BTC since April, raising the total to 14.37M BTC.
• Whale wallets with over 100 BTC have risen sharply, adding 240K BTC since late 2024.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains 2.65 times below its 2-year moving average. Since April, long-term holders have accumulated 339,000 more coins.

Whale wallets holding over 100 BTC have increased and now collectively hold around 240,000 BTC. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price tests the $104,000 level on the weekly chart.

Cycle Peaks Continue to Compress Around the 2Y SMA Bands

Bitcoin’s high price points have been decreasing over the past two years. These highs are now consistently lower than the average price during the same period.

In past cycles, the asset rose to much higher prices than it is now. For example, in the early bull runs, the price of BTC hit around 15 times the 2Y SMA. This happened in 2011 and 2013.

By 2017, Bitcoin reached its highest point near the 2Y SMA ×10 level. In 2021, the highest point was even lower, at 2Y SMA ×5. Later in the same cycle, the price only went up to 2.65x its original value before retracing.

Bitcoin stayed below the ×2.65 mark this cycle. It remained within the same range, showing little growth. According to Alphractal, the 2-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) multiplied by 2.65 is now at about $159,000.

If BTC keeps rising, this level might become a tough spot to break past. So far, the price has gone up, but it’s still lower than before compared to how high it got in the past.

Oscillator Readings Point to Declining Volatility Over Time

Bitcoin price peaks are now milder compared to two years ago. The oscillator chart reveals a decline in the intensity of these highs. The oscillator reached a high of 15x in the beginning stages, matching significant price increases.

However, since 2013, the highs have been lower than the ones before them. Peak points labeled as 1 through 5 help show the trend clearly.

The latest peak stayed below the declining trendline that links earlier highs. This confirms that the overall trend is still moving downward. Although the oscillator still indicates a positive value, it hasn’t been making the big spikes it had in the past.

People are engaging in fewer speculative trades. As a result, price movements have become calmer and more stable.

Long-Term Holders Add Over 330K BTC in Six Weeks

Furthermore, on-chain data shows that long-term holders (LTHs) have been buying more and holding on to their crypto for longer. Since April 4, these holders have bought around 339,000 BTC, bringing their total holdings to 14.37 million BTC.

During the same period, Bitcoin price stayed the same. This means long-term holders bought more coins when the price wasn’t increasing.

Historical data show that LTH usually increases as prices rise or before a price increase happens. This does not guarantee that the price will increase. However, it shows that people have still believed in the asset over a long period.

Whales Accumulate 240K BTC as Address Count Climbs

Additionally, whale activity has increased significantly in the last few months. Since late 2024, the number of Bitcoin addresses holding over 100 BTC has surged.

Data from Bitcoin Magazine Pro highlights this significant increase. These big wallets have increased from under 17,000 to over 18,500, and now they hold over 240,000 BTC.

This increase in large addresses happened when prices went up toward $100,000. This could mean people bought and held more Bitcoin as the price increased.

Whales are accumulating more, and long-term holders are holding onto their coins. This suggests growing interest from big investors and private companies. This trend has shown up before the market started to increase, especially during the early stages.

BTC Technical Resistance Forms Around $104K as Weekly MACD Crosses

BTC is testing a key resistance level at $104,000, where selling pressure historically increases. A breakout above this level could signal strong bullish momentum and potentially lead to further gains.

If Bitcoin fails to break through, it may face a pullback or consolidation before attempting another move higher. The price has tried to go above this level a few times but hasn’t yet managed to stay above it.

The MACD indicator on the same chart has just crossed over to a positive reading on the weekly timeframe. It is usually seen as a sign that the price might go up.

The cross appeared before a sharp price increase over the last two years. The purple arrows highlight this key pattern.

Bitcoin still looks good every week, with prices making higher lows and slowly moving toward a key resistance level. However, the $159,000 level will be a rigid barrier for the price to break through in the future.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.