Bitcoin Still ‘Cool’ at $103K: Why $115K May Be Next Stop?

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin (BTC) holds $102K support after a $170M liquidation event.
• Mayer Multiple Z-Score remains below the historical average.
• June 9 Ichimoku cross could trigger a new price breakout.

Bitcoin hovered near $103,000 in the early hours of Monday, digesting last week’s volatility as traders sized up conflicting macro pressures and technical signals.

BTC faced a steep $5,000 drop from $107,090 over the weekend. However, it remained resilient, steady above the $102,000 support zone.

Bitcoin Remains “Cool” Despite Trading Above $100K

Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple Z-Score stayed negative as of May 19, according to @FrankAFetter. The Z-score tracks deviation from the indicator’s historical average.

Bitcoin has been at higher levels on 53% of past trading days. This suggests the market is not currently overheated.

BTC has moved above its 200-day moving average during its latest rally. However, it still hasn’t exceeded its historical average level.

Spot buyers are active, showing consistent market interest. Yet, the market hasn’t reached the euphoric stage linked to significant price spikes.

The Z-score has improved but remains negative. In early 2024, it exceeded one standard deviation due to substantial gains. The current cycle hasn’t yet reached the deviation levels seen in 2021. This suggests there is still room for sustainable growth.

$106K Resistance Becomes Immediate Focus

Once again, BTC is trading above a key trendline. It is trying to reclaim the $106,000 resistance zone. He said that bulls are trapped first, followed by bears. He added that if the Bitcoin price closes above $106,000, it could pave the way for further gains.

That sentiment aligns with @GertvanLagen’s thesis. BTC is now in “Stage 2.4: Trend Continuation.” Confirmation requires a weekly close above $109,400.

If it closes below $80,200, the trend is invalidated structurally. If the consolidation lasts longer than the previous phase, it is time-based invalidation.

Meanwhile, Dr Cat placed more weight on the June 9 weekly close. He expects the Ichimoku TK cross to occur, marking a decisive bullish signal if Bitcoin holds above the Tenkan-sen.

“Some people get scared on the first red candle,” he wrote, urging traders to wait for higher timeframe confirmations.

Derivatives Data Hints at Spot-Led Momentum

BTC derivatives markets showed surprising strength despite the rejection of nearly $107,000. Laevitas data showed that the annualized one-month futures premium remained close to 6%. This value stayed within the neutral range of 5%-10%.

That premium indicates the market hasn’t overheated, and leverage is not driving price action. Instead, demand appears spot-driven, with traders preferring to accumulate rather than speculate with borrowed funds.

Glassnode data supports this thesis, with funding rates and open interest staying within normal bounds. With no extreme leverage, downside risks from cascading liquidations remain limited.

The $170 Million in long liquidations following the brief $107,000 test also failed to break the $102,000 support. This further reinforces the strength of the underlying spot demand.

External Risks Cap Immediate Upside Potential

Despite technical resilience, global macro factors continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Japan’s 15-year government bond yield reached record highs, raising concerns over global credit risk.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba described Japan’s fiscal situation as “undoubtedly extremely poor,” according to Bloomberg.

As Japan remains the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, some traders fear contagion could trigger broader market instability. Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating to AA1, raising concerns. Equities and crypto remain highly correlated, amplifying the impact.

The correlation of Bitcoin with the S&P 500 stays above 80%, restricting its growth potential. Macro uncertainty continues to weigh on the market.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index data release on June 11 could impact sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s June 17-18 meeting will be closely monitored for policy signals.

Stablecoin Metrics Show Calm in Chinese Markets

Adding to the picture, USDT in China has been trading at a 0.4% discount, according to data from OKX. This suggests that Chinese retail FOMO has not driven the latest Bitcoin rally.

Periods of extreme optimism often see stablecoins trade above fair value, especially in Chinese markets. The current discount reflects a more measured sentiment, which may support a healthier market structure.

Spot demand remains strong, and leverage is low, creating a stable setup for BTC. Macro risks have largely been priced in, reducing uncertainty for investors.

Bitcoin could be preparing for a steady climb toward its all-time highs. The June 9 Ichimoku cross will be key in determining whether this is a new base or a peak.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.