Bitcoin Price Holds Above $100K as On-Chain Activity Stalls

Key Insights:

• Transaction counts range between 320k–500k as BTC trades above $100K, showing decoupling from price trends.
• Share of small transactions drops to 11%, indicating lower retail participation in the latest price rally.
• Derivatives open interest shifts from aggressive to marginal growth, reflecting cautious positioning from major traders.

Bitcoin continued to trade above $100,000 in June, but its network fundamentals showed signs of fatigue. On-chain metrics revealed falling transaction counts, reduced retail participation, and a shift in derivatives market behavior.

Despite price strength, the blockchain activity suggested that organic demand may not be driving the rally.

Bitcoin Transactions Fall Despite Price Holding Above $100K

Bitcoin’s on-chain usage declined sharply even as the asset maintained its six-figure valuation. Daily transactions dropped to a range between 320,000 and 500,000, according to Glassnode.

This range contrasts with the steady rise in transaction counts between early 2023 and mid-2024. Since Nov. 2024, that correlation between user activity and price has weakened.

Between January 2023 and early 2024, the number of transactions exhibited an orderly increase, with price going up. Nevertheless, that correlation has became weaker since Nov 2024.

Increasing network engagement on price rallies is no longer observed in the market and can be a sign of user growth exhaustion or switching to a passive holding style.

Further, the entity-adjusted data indicates that the small-sized transfers are on the decline. Transactions of less than 100,000 dollars in Bitcoin used to constitute 34% of the activity but currently account for only 11%.

Such a contraction is an indicator of the decreasing retail involvement, with institutions and whales starting to take over network traffic.

Derivatives and Margin Data Show a Shift in Risk Appetite

Moreover, Bitcoin futures and options open interest have experienced significant volatility periods throughout this market cycle. The market saw a ruthless growth in open interest between late 2023 and March 2024, with a 30-day net inflow of more than 40 billion dollars.

However, the growth has become moderate and subsequently marginal since April 2024, which indicates less speculative pressure.

Meanwhile, there has been a distinct change in the composition of the margin. In 2021 and 2022, crypto was used to collateralize most of the derivatives market. Such a conduct generated feedback loops and volatility. However, by the middle of 2023, the stablecoin-margined open interest surpassed the crypto-margined one.

This shift shows a risk-off in derivatives. The traders are now willing to hedge their positions using stable collateral so that they can reduce the risks of liquidation during choppy prices. It is also representative of a more institutionalized form of leverage, which minimizes the risk of cascading liquidations when prices move suddenly.

At the same time, the visible demand of Bitcoin is declining. CryptoQuant notes that the 30-day aggregate of BTC demand fell to 118,000 BTC in mid-June, down 228,000 BTC in May 2025. This halving is not only a sign of a weakening of buyers but also a break in the bullish growth trend that has driven previous price increases.

The demand is net positive, though evidently below the trend. When coupled with increased concentration of whales and reduced small trades, this cooling trend indicates reduced organic excitement in the current price. It can be a sign that prices are being supported more by speculative or institutional holding than actual usage.

The general trend is that of increasing price accompanied by decreasing participation. Whale inflows are increasing, and small transaction dominance is decreasing. The open interest is still accumulating, but in a more conservative form and not as aggressively leveraged as in the first half of 2024.

All these indicators point to the fact that the current cycle of Bitcoin might be entering a maturity stage. Despite the resilience of price, the fundamentals point towards a slowing in the growth of grassroots activity and a softening in demand growth.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.