Bitcoin Holds $105K as Ceasefire Eases Geopolitical Fears

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin price rebounds above $106K after Trump announces Middle East ceasefire.
• $193M in BTC longs liquidated despite stable open interest.
• Traders short $107K–$109K until BTC breaks $110K resistance.

Bitcoin bounced back above $106K after Trump’s ceasefire comments, but short-term traders are shorting $107K–$109K, expecting further rejection unless BTC clears $110K resistance.

Bitcoin Price Recovers as Ceasefire Boosts Risk Sentiment

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $106,000 mark on Monday after plunging below $98,500 for the first time in 45 days. The drop triggered anxiety across markets, but sentiment shifted following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a “total ceasefire” between Israel and Iran. BTC’s rebound came amid easing geopolitical fears, although its short-term price structure remains in question.

The recovery followed a sharp 4.4% drop over a 12-hour period that liquidated $193 million in long positions, according to CoinGlass. This accounted for about 0.3% of all Bitcoin futures open interest. Despite the sudden volatility, total open interest in BTC derivatives remained stable at $68 billion, suggesting leverage levels did not spike.

Although drawdowns of this nature have occurred three times in the past month, the timing of Sunday’s decline — during heightened conflict fears — raised concerns among traders. Some market participants now debate whether Bitcoin can push toward $110,000 or face renewed pressure from bearish positions at key resistance levels.

Miners Hit as Hashrate Falls 8%

Bitcoin’s mining ecosystem also showed signs of strain. Between Sunday and Thursday, BTC’s total hashrate dropped 8%, falling from 943.6 million to 865.1 million terahashes per second. Analysts speculated that potential disruptions in the Middle East particularly in Iran may have contributed to the decline. Iran has long been suspected of hosting unlicensed Bitcoin mining operations consuming up to 2 gigawatts of electricity, though verification remains elusive.

Daniel Batten, an analyst and environmental researcher, dismissed the idea that geopolitical tension alone triggered the hashrate dip. On X, Batten pointed to a similar drop on April 22 when violent storms swept across Texas and Oklahoma, causing at least 17 tornadoes and widespread grid disruptions. He said sharp hashrate declines often occur during extreme weather events in the United States, where miners routinely shut down to preserve energy during peak demand.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise as Oil Falls

Oil prices dropped sharply on Monday after reaching $77 per barrel on Sunday. The decline came as the S&P 500 gained 1%, reflecting improving risk appetite across traditional markets. Traders also reacted to reports of a retaliatory drone strike in Qatar, with expectations now shifting toward interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed the probability of the Fed holding rates at 4.25% through November fell to 8.4%, down from 17.1% a week earlier. Meanwhile, the odds of rates dropping to 3.75% or lower rose to 53%, up from 38%.

The shifting macro backdrop supports Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, especially if rate cuts weaken the U.S. dollar further. However, traders caution against relying solely on the ceasefire or Fed expectations as a bullish trigger.

Short Sellers Eye Resistance at $110K

Despite the bounce, some technical traders remain unconvinced that Bitcoin’s trend has reversed. Crypto Patel, a trader on X, warned that BTC’s structure remains bearish unless the price breaks and closes above $108,900 on the low time frame and $110,654 on the high time frame. He added that “smart money is shorting $107K–$109K,” calling the zone a high-reward, low-risk opportunity for bears.

That aligns with recent market behavior, where each rally has faced resistance before breaching new highs. Until Bitcoin confirms strength above the high time frame resistance, upside calls may remain speculative.

As institutional demand holds firm and volatility spikes, traders now watch whether the current macro relief can sustain momentum or if geopolitical risk and heavy resistance will trigger another correction.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.