Bitcoin Faces Options Expiry Pressure as Miners Dump $485M in BTC

Key Insights:

• $14.6B worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired, fueling volatility fears.
• JPMorgan valued Bitcoin at $126K, citing market mispricing.
• Miners sold 4,207 BTC in 12 days, adding to supply concerns.

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $112,000 level on Aug. 28 after bouncing from a six-week low earlier this week. Traders, however, braced for sharp volatility as $14.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired, while miners continued to offload holdings at the fastest pace in nine months.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency traded near $111,249 during Thursday’s recovery. The rebound followed steady miner liquidations and growing caution over weakening momentum signals.

Options Expiry and Bearish Divergences

Crypto Rover flagged the expiry of $14.6 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options, warning of a potential volatility spike. Options expiry events often increase short-term market swings as hedges unwind and traders reposition.

At the same time, Ali Martinez noted a worrying divergence. “Bitcoin is making higher highs while RSI makes lower lows,” he wrote on X. “This is the same divergence seen before the 2021 cycle top.” The bearish divergence revived memories of overheated conditions preceding Bitcoin’s earlier macro peak.

Short-term holder metrics also reinforced the caution. Crypto Rover highlighted that the Short-Term Holder MVRV Bollinger Bands fell to oversold levels. He said previous dips of this kind aligned with April’s market bottoms, suggesting that Bitcoin could be preparing for another corrective phase before a potential rebound.

JPMorgan’s $126K Fair Value Estimate

Wall Street added its own perspective to the debate. Vivek Sen shared that JPMorgan, the $4 trillion banking giant, issued a new valuation for Bitcoin. The bank said the asset “should be at $126,000 right now,” pointing to a gap between its modeled fair value and current trading levels.

The statement drew widespread reaction across social media. Bulls saw it as institutional validation, while skeptics recalled JPMorgan’s shifting stance on Bitcoin over the past decade. Still, the figure offered a reference point as markets weighed upside potential against looming risks from miner behavior and technical divergences.

Miners Accelerate Selling

Miner activity remained another key talking point. Data from Glassnode showed miners offloaded 4,207 BTC, worth roughly $485 million, between Aug. 11 and Aug. 23. The stretch marked the fastest period of net outflows since December 2024, when Bitcoin failed to hold above $97,000.

Miner reserves now stand at 63,736 BTC, valued above $7.1 billion. The liquidations came after months of accumulation between April and July, when miners added 6,675 BTC to balances. The shift reflected tighter margins and weaker profitability across the sector.

HashRateIndex data confirmed miner profitability fell 10% over the past nine months, despite Bitcoin’s 18% price gain in the same period. Rising mining difficulty and softer on-chain activity contributed to the squeeze.

Mining Adapts to AI Competition

The selling also came amid structural changes in the mining industry. TeraWulf struck a $3.2 billion deal with Google for equity in exchange for building an AI data center campus in New York. The move highlighted miners’ pivot toward artificial intelligence as competition for energy and infrastructure intensified.

Other firms followed suit. Australian miner Iren accelerated GPU acquisitions, while Hive committed $30 million to expand GPU-based operations in Quebec. These initiatives reflected a broader diversification push, even as Bitcoin’s hashrate neared an all-time high of 960 million terahashes per second.

The surge in hashrate underlined network strength despite ongoing miner liquidations. Analysts noted that corporate inflows from firms like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet still outweighed miner outflows, reducing fears of forced capitulation.

Market Weighs Next Move

Bitcoin’s recovery above $112,000 offered temporary relief, but sentiment stayed divided. Ali Martinez’s RSI divergence warning contrasted with JPMorgan’s $126,000 fair value estimate, while Crypto Rover pointed to oversold short-term metrics as a potential base.

Miner sales and the $14.6 billion options expiry remained near-term catalysts for now. Traders awaited confirmation on whether the latest bounce would extend or give way to further downside pressure.

The tension between institutional models, technical divergences, and miner supply dynamics kept Bitcoin in focus as August trading drew to a close.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.