Metaplanet Stock Nears Death Cross as NAV Multiple Plunges

Metaplanet stock price continued its freefall this week as interest in Bitcoin treasury companies waned. This plunge will likely continue in the coming weeks as a death cross pattern nears and its net asset value (NAV) multiple plunges.

Metaplanet Stock Price is Nearing a Death Cross

The daily timeframe chart shows that the Metaplanet share price has been in a strong freefall after peaking at ¥1,926 in June. Technicals suggest that this freefall could accelerate in the coming weeks.

One of the main reasons is that it may be about to form a death cross pattern. This pattern forms when the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) cross each other when facing downwards.

The 50-day EMA is now at ¥910, while the 200-day average is at ¥775. Therefore, a sustained downward trend will trigger this pattern and point to more downside.

Worse, the stock has invalidated the falling wedge pattern forming in the past few months. This pattern forms when there are two descending and converging trendlines. A drop below the lower line of this pattern means that the stock may continue falling in the near term.

Further, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has continued rising and is at 36 today, a side the downtrend is gaining steam.

The Metaplanet stock price also remains below the Ichimoku cloud indicator, indicating that the downtrend continues.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock continue falling as sellers target the next support level at ¥300, which is the lowest level in April this year. This price is about 45% below the current level.

On the flip side, a move above the 200-day moving average at ¥1,214 will invalidate the bearish outlook.

Metaplanet NAV Multiple is Plunging

The main reason why the Metaplanet stock price is falling is that demand for Bitcoin treasury companies is fading. A closer look at companies with Bitcoin balance sheets shows a strong downward trend.

For example, Michael Saylor’s Strategy stock price has plunged in the past few months and is now down by over 40% from its highest level in 2024. Similarly, other companies like Trump Media, GameStop, Semler Scientific, and MicroCloud Hologram plunged in the past few months.

This plunge has led to a sharp drop in the net asset value (NAV) from over eight earlier this year to 1.238. A drop in the NAV multiple is important for  Bitcoin treasury companies because it helps them to raise money, which they use to accumulate more Bitcoins.

There is a possibility that the NAV multiple will continue falling in the near term. Indeed, there is a risk that the NAV multiple will drop below the important milestone of 1 as some companies like Semler Scientific, MicroCloud Hologram, and KindlyMD have done. If this happens, it will become more difficult for it to raise money.

Bitcoin Price Wedge Pattern is a Headwind

The other main short-term risk is that Bitcoin price could drop despite the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

The chart below shows that the Bitcoin price has formed a rising wedge pattern on the daily timeframe. This pattern comprises two ascending and converging trendlines, with a dive happening when they are about to converge.

Therefore, the stock will drop, potentially to the support level at $107,295, its lowest level on August 30th.

A Bitcoin price crash would be highly bearish for Metaplanet and other treasury companies. That’s because they are seen as proxies for the coin.

Additionally, concerns have arisen that the treasury industry is becoming oversaturated, with the number of companies exceeding 170. More companies are launching treasuries on other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP.

Therefore, these technical and fundamental factors mean that the Metaplanet stock price will continue falling for a while. It will bounce back either in the fourth quarter or in 2026 as investors buy the dip.