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The MSTR stock price continued its free fall this week, plunging to its lowest level since October last year. It plunged by over 7% on Thursday and continued the retreat in the premarket session today, Nov. 14.
Strategy has now plunged by 56% from its highest level this year and by 63% from the highest level in 2024. In contrast, top indices such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 have reached their all-time highs this year.
MSTR Stock Price Technical Analysis After Flipping Key Support
The daily timeframe chart shows that the Strategy stock price surged. Additionally, it reached its all-time high of $541 in November of last year, as Bitcoin surged.
It then retreated and formed a double-bottom pattern at $230 in February and April. This triggered a brief rebound to the year-to-date high of $456.
MicroStrategy stock price then started a freefall that brought it to a low of $200, its lowest level since October last year. As this happened, it moved below the key support at $230.
This was the lower side of the inverse cup-and-handle pattern. An inverse C&H pattern is one of the most common bearish continuation patterns in technical analysis.
The MSTR stock price also formed other risky patterns during the ongoing crash. For example, it has moved below the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level, where reversals typically occur.
MicroStrategy share price also formed a death cross pattern on October 11. Following this, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed below the 200-day one, indicating a downward trend.
Additionally, the strength of the downtrend was confirmed as the Average Directional Index (ADX) rose to 38, its highest level since December of last year. The ADX indicator is widely used to confirm the strength of a trend.
Therefore, the most likely MSTR stock price forecast is for it to continue its strong downward trend in the coming days, now that it is poised to drop below the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at $197. A move below that level will point to more downside, potentially to $103, the lowest level in June last year.
On the flip side, a move above the psychological level of $300 will invalidate the bearish Strategy share price outlook and point to more upside.
MicroStrategy Stock Price Crashes as Bitcoin Outlook Darkens
The ongoing MSTR stock price crash has coincided with the Bitcoin price plunge. Bitcoin fell for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a low of $95,9100, its lowest level since May 7. It has entered a local bear market after falling 25% from its highest level this year.
Technical and fundamental analysis suggest that the Bitcoin price has more downside to go in the coming weeks. It has formed a double-top pattern at $124,670 and a neckline at the September low of $107,000. Moving below that level was notable as it confirmed the bearish outlook.
The coin’s Average Directional Index (ADX) has also jumped to 28, confirming the bearish outlook. Additionally, the True Strength Index (TSI) has moved downwards and is currently hovering at its lowest level since March last year.
Worse, the coin is about to form a death cross pattern as the spread between the 50-day and 200-day EMA narrows. Therefore, the most likely Bitcoin price forecast is bearish. With this, the next key target is the psychological level at $90,000.
Strategy NAV Plunges Below 1
The other major risk facing the MSTR stock price is that the market NAV multiple has continued falling. mNAV is a crucial metric that evaluates the value of its Bitcoin holdings in relation to its market capitalization.
In this case, Strategy has a valuation of $60 billion while its Bitcoin holdings are worth $61 billion, giving it an mNAV multiple of 0.974.
The falling mNAV will make it difficult for the company to raise money and even attract investors, who were previously drawn to it due to the premium.
