After Missing Santa Rally, Will Bitcoin Price See Good Start to 2026?

It has been a very underperforming Q4 and 2025 for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market. With the Bitcoin price losing the hopes of a Santa rally, analysts are weighing how Q1 2026 will be moving ahead. Historically, Q1 has been very strong for BTC and crypto assets.

Bitcoin Price Expected Performance in Q1 2026

Popular crypto market analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin price could see a more constructive setup in the first quarter of 2026. He noted that seasonal trends alone are no longer the reliable indicators.

The analyst noted that while the first quarter has historically been a strong period for Bitcoin. However, the same was applicable for Q4 2025, which ultimately failed to deliver meaningful upside.

Calling 2025 a “messy” year, Daan Crypto Trades noted some good things like large institutional inflows and aggressive treasury accumulation. It was ultimately offset by selling from long-term holders and traditional four-year cycle dynamics.

Daan Crypto Trades added that early 2026 could become a critical test for Bitcoin’s long-standing four-year market cycle. He added that the first quarter will determine whether the cycle framework still holds.

2026 Could Be A Volatile Year for Bitcoin Price

Crypto market experts believe that 2026 will most likely continue to be a volatile year for Bitcoin (BTC). Speaking about Bitcoin’s outlook, Maja Vujinovic, CEO of FG Nexus Digital Assets, said that she wouldn’t assign a Bitcoin price forecast for the next year.

However, she expects significantly higher volatility than many market participants anticipate. Vujinovic also warned that Bitcoin price could decline further before resuming any sustained upside.

She also noted that the Bitcoin price projections from some of the top financial institutions like JPMorgan, Standard Chartered, Cathie Wood, and Tom Lee, have missed the mark. Vujinovic said that the 2026 uncertainty would most likely be due to unresolved structural and political factors.

This includes the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, and the absence of regulatory clarity following the stalled CLARITY Act. Despite these headwinds, Vujinovic noted that the long-term growth story for Bitcoin remains intact.

On the other hand, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Woods believes that 2026 could be a “Goldilocks” year for Bitcoin and crypto market. She arguing that investors may be underestimating how different the macro backdrop could look next year.

According to Woods, markets have already absorbed several major shocks in 2025. This includes tariff-related uncertainty, a government shutdown, and persistently hawkish messaging from the Federal Reserve. Wood noted that despite this pressure, Bitcoin price action has remained more resilient than many expected, laying the groundwork for improved sentiment going forward.

According to Wood, this resilience supports a more optimistic outlook for 2026. She suggested that economic growth could accelerate while inflation falls sharply. Besides, Wood believes that inflation could even drop to zero or turn negative if declines in oil prices and housing rents continue.

BTC Performance Related to Gold

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg warned that the Bitcoin price performance relative to gold is approaching a critical juncture. He added that this could lead to broader implications for risk assets.

In a recent analysis, McGlone said the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is hovering near key technical support around 20x as of December 19. He noted that if the S&P 500 were to record its third negative year since 2008 in 2026, gold’s relative strength versus Bitcoin could emerge as a leading indicator for broader market stress.

McGlone questioned what might prevent the Bitcoin/gold ratio from reverting toward its long-term average near 5x. He pointed out that the ratio is largely unchanged from 2020 and has declined despite a resilient equity market. This could signal an end game for elevated risk assets, he said.