Bitcoin Price Targets $140K as Options Expiry Fuels Bullish Outlook

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $115,400 on Sept. 12, holding gains after touching two-week highs. A combination of bullish technical structures, options expiry imbalances, and macro expectations set the stage for potential moves toward $140,000 in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin Price Holds Gains Above Key Resistance

On Thursday, BTC/USD surged past the $114,000 level after Oracle Corporation’s positive earnings report boosted artificial intelligence infrastructure stocks. The move carried Bitcoin to its highest level since late August, triggering renewed speculation of a larger breakout before the Sept. 12 options expiry.

Data from Laevitas showed aggregate open interest for Friday’s expiry at $4.3 billion. Put options represented $2.35 billion while call contracts totaled $1.93 billion. Still, Bitcoin’s bounce away from $107,500 lows tilted the advantage toward bulls.

On Deribit, which commands 75% of market share, only $125 million in puts held relevance above $114,000. In contrast, more than $300 million in call contracts would activate if Bitcoin remained above $113,000. This created a $175 million advantage for call buyers heading into settlement.

CryptoRobotics highlighted the $113,700–$114,400 range as a key resistance zone. Sellers attempted to defend the level, but absorption by buyers suggested further upside potential. However, analysts warned weak updates of local highs could still form a bull trap.

Elliott Wave Setup Hints at $140K Target

On-chain and technical traders also tracked an unfolding Elliott Wave pattern on daily charts. The structure showed BTC completing its fourth corrective wave near $111,000, leaving room for a fifth wave rally toward $140,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe read 57.8, well below overbought levels, supporting the case for additional upside. Previous rallies from similar setups in May and July pushed Bitcoin to fresh highs before corrective phases emerged.

Key support remains around $102,500–$108,000, where volume clusters accumulated during August consolidation. Analysts noted that as long as BTC holds above this zone, the bullish wave count remains valid.

MVRV Below SMA365 Raises Cycle Questions

Beyond short-term positioning, traders debated broader cycle behavior. Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio slipped below its 365-day simple moving average (SMA365), a level historically respected during bull markets.

Until 2024, MVRV consistently stayed above the SMA365 during uptrends. Spot exchange-traded fund inflows appeared to distort this cycle, however, with two previous dips below SMA365 followed by recoveries and new all-time highs.

The current test marked the third such event, sparking questions about whether Bitcoin’s cycle had structurally changed. Analysts suggested the market now resembled a “staircase-like” bull trend with extended corrections rather than rapid parabolic surges.

Macro Conditions Add Tailwinds

Following fresh U.S. inflation data, economists expected the Fed to cut rates three times before year-end. A dovish backdrop traditionally supports risk assets, and Bitcoin remained sensitive to liquidity shifts.

At the same time, concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven earnings, particularly Oracle’s $455 billion contract backlog tied to OpenAI, weighed on broader equity markets. Traders debated whether AI demand could maintain current valuations, with potential spillover effects on Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks.

Nevertheless, Oracle’s 36% share price surge underscored the scale of investor appetite, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin via renewed risk appetite. Nvidia’s role in supplying infrastructure further reinforced the feedback loop between AI growth and crypto sentiment.

Traders Watch Key Zones into Expiry

Heading into Friday’s expiry, analysts emphasized the importance of Bitcoin sustaining levels above $113,000. Doing so would trigger $300 million in call interest, strengthening the bullish case for a push toward $120,000.

Sell zones remain between $116,500 and $119,000, where accumulated volumes could trigger resistance. Above $121,200, however, absorption by buyers could clear the path toward new highs.

Buy zones include $114,300–$113,700 and $111,600–$110,500. Stronger support lies near $108,000, which aligns with the lower boundary of the Elliott Wave corrective zone.

Market participants continued to weigh risks of a correction, but as CryptoRobotics noted, absorption of sell pressure at $114,400 suggested bulls retained control.

Conclusion

Bitcoin held firm at $115,400 as traders positioned for a pivotal options expiry. Technicals hinted at a path toward $140,000, while on-chain metrics suggested the cycle may be shifting into a slower, more measured bull market.

With macro conditions turning dovish, options data favoring call buyers, and technical structures intact, Bitcoin faced a decisive moment. Whether the market confirmed bullish momentum or delivered another correction would depend on Friday’s expiry outcome and subsequent institutional flows.