Bitcoin Price Stalls at $85K as $100K Odds Hold Near 34%

Bitcoin price traded around $83,500 on Sept. 29 after recovering sharply from its August lows. BTC remained below the $84,000-$85,000 long-term-holder supply cluster identified by Glassnode.

Prediction-market traders still assigned Bitcoin a minority chance of returning to $100,000 before year-end. Meanwhile, political spending by crypto companies has increased ahead of the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections.

Bitcoin Price Rally Faces Heavy Supply Near $85,000

Bitcoin has risen about 35% from its August low, while coin-denominated open interest has fallen almost 20%. Open interest is now near its lowest level since March, according to recent market data.

The lower leverage means the advance has developed without the same futures buildup seen during earlier rallies. That may reduce forced liquidations, although it does not remove downside risk.

Glassnode places the largest long-term holder supply cluster between $84,000 and $85,000. A sustained move above that range would clear an important on-chain resistance area.

The firm identifies the mean MVRV price near $96,700 as the next major resistance level. On the downside, its True Market Mean sits around $77,000 and remains an important support area.

Prediction Markets Keep $100,000 BTC Crypto Target in Play

Prediction markets still assign a minority probability to Bitcoin returning to six figures during 2026. Polymarket recently priced a 34% chance that BTC will reach $100,000 by December 31.

However, at a price near $83,500 at press time, Bitcoin needs a roughly 20% advance to reach $100,000. Consequently, Glassnode’s $96,700 resistance level would come before that milestone if the rally extends.

In addition, regulatory developments could also remain part of Bitcoin’s market backdrop before the November 3 elections. Crypto companies have contributed $206 million to super PACs and hybrid PACs during the 2026 election cycle.

Public Citizen said $83 million of those corporate contributions went to Fairshake, a crypto-focused super PAC. Fairshake and affiliated groups have also directed funds toward congressional races involving candidates from both major parties.

The group recently committed at least $30 million to oppose Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s Senate race. That came after the Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, a key digital-asset market structure bill backed by the industry.

However, the November elections will determine control of Congress and could affect the path of future crypto legislation.

Analyst Watches $73,000 After November Midterms

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has warned that Bitcoin has historically weakened after several previous US midterm elections. He cited post-election declines following the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections.

Martinez stressed that the historical pattern does not establish that elections caused those declines. His analysis instead identifies the November 3 vote as a period worth monitoring for volatility.

If another pullback develops, Martinez points to BTC crypto short-term holder cost basis near $73,000 as a possible support zone. His scenario calls for watching that level rather than assuming the historical pattern will repeat.

Bitcoin’s immediate path remains tied to the $84,000 to $85,000 supply area. A break above it would shift attention toward $96,700 and then $100,000.

Failure to hold the recovery would refocus on lower support, including Glassnode’s $77,000 level and Martinez’s $73,000 zone.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or political advice. Prediction-market odds and technical levels can change rapidly.