Bitcoin Holds Above $100K for a Month — Sideways in June or Break to New Highs?

Key Insights:

• Bitfinex long positions drop sharply as price climbs, signalling bullish momentum ahead.
• New BTC whales hold over 1.1M coins, creating lasting supply pressure with little profit-taking.
• ETF net inflows turn positive again, while whales accumulate over 600K BTC since March, tightening available supply.

Bitcoin held steady above $100,000, maintaining that level throughout the past month. The market remained cautiously bullish as whales accumulated and ETF flows recovered.

Bitfinex Longs Shrink as Bitcoin Price Climbs Higher

Bitcoin is still above $100K, trading at $104,635 with a daily drop of just 0.70% in the past 24 hours. Despite the red print, BTC has been quite resilient and benefited from soft macro flows and ETF rotation strength.

But technical analyst Joao points to a bigger signal — longs on Bitfinex are going down as price goes up. Longs on Bitfinex sit at 48,200 BTC, while shorts are just 184 BTC, which is very much out of balance.

In the past, major upward price moves in Bitcoin markets have been preceded by a decline in long positions on Bitfinex. What is notable is the inverse correlation, as prior price drops have followed spikes in Bitfinex longs, not the other way around.

If Bitfinex long positions continue to fall, Bitcoin’s uptrend may continue, Joao Wedson said. This has repeated itself multiple times over the past two years, and the metric has become a gauge for sentiment.

So, this drop in longs could be more of a controlled positioning before another potential push higher.

Whale Buying Accelerates While Supply Pressure Rises

According to on-chain data, new Bitcoin whales have been accumulating at an aggressive pace since March this year. The number of wallets holding over 1,000 BTC has increased their holdings from 500K BTC to 1.1M BTC or over $63 billion.

This growth is equal to about 10 months of total mining supply and puts huge structural pressure on the available BTC float. These are fresh buys, unlike recycled coins from older holders, which means they were probably done by new institutional entries.

This trend often happens before macro events such as possible spikes in ETF demand or expected interest rate changes. Historically, whale accumulation tends to front-run major price rallies.

On the other hand, current Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) cohort data shows unrealized profits are relatively low. This is in contrast to previous cycle tops, which usually have far higher unrealized gains, indicating more upside potential.

However, because prices are elevated, most holders are not in extreme profit, which leaves room for bullish continuation. Also, the most recent Fear & Greed Index was at 50 during this week’s price pullback to $104K.

Historically, that level serves as psychological support, and it often causes rebounds and short-term buying flows in BTC.

Since then, the index has begun to rise again, indicating early indications of renewed optimism in retail sentiment indicators.

Bitcoin ETF Net Flows Rebound and Traders Shrug Off Correction

The landscape of ETF flows continues to be mixed, but has shifted slightly positive after a few days of net outflows. Net spot ETF flows went green again on Tuesday and Wednesday, indicating that institutional buyers were feeling more confident.

Outflows were aggressive earlier in the week, but fresh inflows appear to have stabilized market expectations. ETF traders are probably not expecting a deeper correction, Axel Adler Jr noted, referring to recent bid action.

In addition, new whale cohorts continue to steadily climb their long-term supply held, regardless of short-term volatility. It shows the strategic positioning by the big investors who are apparently not affected by the short-term funding or ETF noise.

Bitcoin’s strength comes from consistent demand, not speculative bursts, and it has a total market cap of $2.07 trillion. Now the market is waiting for a breakout above recent highs or for a sideways trend that lasts into June.

But bullish indicators are outweighing bearish signals so far; hence, BTC may try to break toward new all-time highs as long as Bitfinex long positions decline and ETF demand remains steady.

Disclaimer

In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.