40% of Bitcoin Treasuries Sink, Can Saylor’s MSTR Handle the Shock?

Bitcoin plunged below $87,000 in 2025, wiping out gains for major treasury holders. Firms like Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) now sit underwater on their Bitcoin reserves.

It means that these firms are trading below the net asset value of the BTC holdings. Many analysts have raised caution, noting that if BTC falls further from here, it would be unsustainable for most firms.

Bitcoin Treasury Hype Fades As 40% Companies Suffer

Following Michael Saylor’s playbook for MSTR, 2025 saw one of the biggest trends with companies building their own Bitcoin Treasury. Data from BitcoinTreasuries.net shows 37 of the top 100 Bitcoin treasury firms trading below NAV. These companies face discounts that undercut their net asset value.

This shows that nearly 40% of major corporate treasuries are trading under their Bitcoin balance sheets. Also, the initial hype surrounding BTC holdings seems to be fading fast.

For much of 2025, Bitcoin treasury firms, including Strategy (MSTR), benefited from strong equity premiums. This allowed them to issue shares above the value of their Bitcoin holdings. These firms then used the proceeds to make additional Bitcoin purchases.

This led to the rapid adoption of the strategy by nearly 200 publicly listed companies. These companies, together with MSTR, accumulated more than 1 million Bitcoins worth nearly $96 billion.

However, the model depends on sustained equity premiums. Once those premiums disappear, the strategy loses its financial advantage. Strategy’s MSTR stock previously traded at more than double the value of its Bitcoin holdings. However, it now trades at a 17% discount.

The downturn began to take shape in October. By year-end, The Blockchain Group stood out as the only Bitcoin treasury firm to beat the S&P 500. It delivered a 16% return in 2025.

All other Bitcoin treasury companies underperformed the benchmark index. Most of these firms have spent 60% and more to acquire BTC than the current market value of their holdings.

The 37 Bitcoin treasury companies currently trading below net asset value include both small and big players.

Major firms like Strategy and Twenty One Capital, two of the five largest Bitcoin treasuries, are trading at a 17% discount. Their market value lags behind the worth of their Bitcoin holdings.

Sweden-based H100 Group is valued at a 32% discount. At the same time, Vanadi Coffee trades at a 61% discount to its Bitcoin reserves.

Additionally, five to six Bitcoin treasury firms are trading at close to parity with their holdings. This includes Brazil-based OranjeBTC, which is valued at approximately 1.0x net asset value.

MSTR Faces Major Q4 Loss Amid Bitcoin Price Decline

Strategy is likely to report a multibillion-dollar loss for the fourth quarter after Bitcoin prices fell 24%, Bloomberg reported. This could lead to a reversal from the $2.8 billion profit recorded in the previous quarter.

Of course, these would be unrealized losses, as per the decline in the BTC price, under the new fair value accounting standards. The projected downturn comes as investor confidence in the Bitcoin-treasury model continues to weaken.

The MSTR stock has declined 48% in 2025 and is nearly 70% below its November 2024 peak. This has also led to concerns over the company’s ability to fund dividend payments and service interest expenses. In response, the firm raised additional liquidity in December through equity sales.

Looking ahead, Strategy has forecast full-year operating results ranging from a $7 billion loss to a $9.5 billion profit. This depends on Bitcoin prices between $85,000 and $110,000. With Bitcoin closing the year near $87,600, results are expected to fall toward the lower end of that range.

Furthermore, the company’s valuations are now slipping under their own Bitcoin holdings. This has led to growing market skepticism surrounding Michael Saylor’s Strategy.

Some Bullish Sentiment for MSTR

Despite the poor performance of MSTR amid falling Bitcoin prices, experts remain optimistic for 2026. In his recent interview with Fox Business, Strategy CEO Phong Le said:

Wall Street remains bullish on Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy, with TD Cowen reaffirming a positive outlook on the MSTR stock. Senior analyst Lance Vitanza reiterated a Buy rating on Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) with a $500 price target for 2026.

The call comes despite recent volatility in Bitcoin-linked equities. Strategy shares are currently trading around $155, well below the target level outlined by TD Cowen.