XRP Price Breakout Targets $2.69 as SEC Clarity Nears, Will July 3 Trigger the Breakout?

Key Insights:

• XRP price rebounded from $2.07 support and now eyes $2.25–$2.69 resistance zone.
• SEC meeting on July 3 may end appeal, removing key barriers to XRP‘s growth.
• Macro “W” pattern suggests long-term XRP targets of $15, $22, and even $40.

XRP price surged to $2.20 on June 30, 2025, after bouncing from $2.07, signaling renewed momentum. Traders now focus on the July 3 SEC meeting, which may determine Ripple’s regulatory fate. Technical indicators are in line with the legal progress, causing analysts to maintain targets of $2.25 and $2.69, and some predict further increases in the coming months.

SEC Appeal Withdrawal May Unleash XRP Price Rally

XRP price strength this week followed growing speculation that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may drop its appeal against Ripple. Expectations of possible regulatory change are being fuelled by the closed-door meeting on July 3rd.

According to analyst John Squire, “Once they forgo the appeal, it is the end of the game,” and the asset would have full competitive access in U.S. markets once again.

Notably, the legal sentiment has tilted toward Ripple for months. Courtroom progress and procedural wins have weakened the SEC’s case, and investors are now positioning ahead of a resolution. XRP price has tracked this trend closely, with both spot and derivatives volume increasing across June.

Interestingly, open interest kept increasing in large exchanges, and funding rates are neutral. This suggests confident accumulation rather than overheated speculation. This is confirmed on-chain, where large holders accumulated and the coins moved to exchanges less. If the SEC drops the case, it would likely trigger sharp price acceleration as legal uncertainty vanishes.

Rebound from $2.07 Confirms Elliott Wave Continuation

XRP’s technical setup also supported the bullish outlook as CasiTrades identified $2.07 as a critical zone, where Fibonacci levels and wave structures converged. That rebound was probably the end of wave 2 of an Elliot impulse pattern with wave 3, the strongest wave, to follow.

The subsequent resistance can be found at the $2.25 level, which coincides with a macro 0.382 retracement and previous peak. Two outcomes are now in play: either XRP price breaks above $2.30 and retests $2.25 as support, or it accelerates straight toward $2.45 and $2.69. In both cases, wave 3 remains the dominant projection.

Moreover, momentum indicators confirm this situation, when RSI will be seen maintaining strong positions on the 4H and daily timeframes, but not showing overbought levels. MACD signals trend continuation across all timeframes. In the meantime, the order book information indicates less resistance above the $2.30 level, which enhances the possibility of sharp price action after penetrating this price range.

W-Pattern Structure Suggests Higher XRP Price Targets

Moreover, analyst EGRAG Crypto supported the bullish outlook with his adjusted W-pattern forecast. His model, identified as W Pattern 10, indicates the possible peak of cycles to be $15, $22, or even $40. These figures are based on historical symmetry across past XRP expansions since 2017.

EGRAG advised taking profits at $6-$7 and added that most traders lose the top by going too long. The framework combines technical projections with practical steps of an exit strategy, a detail that has been embraced by many in the community.

The W-pattern remains intact as long as XRP price holds above $1.80. This framework not only indicates increased goals; it offers a broader picture in the long term. With the wave count analysis and SEC news, it also provides a comprehensive decision-making framework to traders.

XRP Builds Momentum Below Key Resistance

In the meantime, XRP price is currently squeezing under $2.25, creating pressure. Bollinger Bands are showing a sign of divergence, and there is a price action forming higher lows. These are classic signs of an impending breakout. The trading volume is increasing but has not yet reached the parabolic level, thus it could have some more upside.

Liquidity heatmaps showed reduced resistance above $2.30. Any bullish action past the current level may propel a sharp plummet into the $2.45-$2.69 region. Momentum remains steady, and broader sentiment is supportive, especially as traders anticipate clarity from the SEC.

Additionally, the volume of trades involving USD and USDT has risen on the major exchange platforms. XRP has moved higher in volume rankings, suggesting wider interest. However, should the price break above $2.30 on strong volume, there are good chances that the breakout will be validated.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.