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Bitwise CEO Matt Hougan has highlighted the importance of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to its long-term performance. In a recent post on X, Hougan noted that the Bitcoin price will remain parabolic as long as ETF demand is sustained.
According to him, gold’s performance in 2025 is a sign of what is possible for Bitcoin in the near future.
Hougan Believes Turnaround Will Happen After Sellers’ Exhaustion
In his post on X, Hougan noted that sellers’ exhaustion will make the difference for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. According to him, this is what caused gold to soar by 65% in 2025 and record its biggest gains in almost 50 years.
Most people believe gold’s performance in 2025 is due to central banks’ purchases, which shifted the supply-demand balance. However, Hougan noted that the shift happened three years ago.
He explained that central bank purchases of gold have been increasing since 2022, when the US imposed sanctions on Russia’s treasury deposits. In response, annual gold purchases doubled from around 500 tonnes to 1000 tonnes and have remained at that level since then.
However, the change in the supply-demand balance did not immediately reflect in prices, with gold only gaining 2% in 2022, followed by a 13% gain in 2023. Even the 27% in 2024 was not that significant.
The expert noted that these performances over the years were due to central bank demand being met with sellers offloading. However, 2025 was when demand finally outstripped supply.
He wrote:
“It wasn’t until 2025 that prices went parabolic. That’s because, for the first few years, central bank demand was met by people willing to sell their gold holdings. But eventually, the sellers ran out of ammo. And as demand persisted, prices soared.”
The CEO believes the same thing is happening with Bitcoin and the ETFs. So far, ETFs have been purchasing more than 100% of the new Bitcoin supply since their launch in January 2025. However, the price has yet to show any significant movement due to sustained selling by existing holders.
Hougan expects that to change as long as the ETF demand persists, noting that sellers will eventually run out of ammo.
Signs of Exhaustion Showing as Bitcoin Climbs to $97,000
Interestingly, institutional demand for Bitcoin exceeded new supply in 2024 and 2025. The trend is expected to continue in 2026, particularly as the crypto market appears poised for a rebound.
Despite volatile performance over the past few months, Bitcoin ETFs have seen year-to-date inflows of $1.5 billion. Most of that has come this week, with the product recording $843 million in inflows on January 14.
The surge in inflows for Bitcoin ETFs coincides with BTC rising to $97,000 for the first time since November 2025. The flagship asset is now up 9.41% YTD, leading Senior Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas to note that “maybe buyers have exhausted the sellers.”
Data from CryptoQuant also supports this, with analysts noting that original Bitcoin activity has declined sharply. This suggests that the group of long-term holders (those holding for more than 5 years) has pulled back on selling.
