Ethereum Price Retests 1,400-Day Triangle as $16B Options Expiry Looms

The cryptocurrency market is poised for a tumultuous finish to October, as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and leading altcoins have plummeted. In long positions alone, there was a liquidation of over $1.2 billion, which is nearly $200 billion-worth of total market value wiped out. Yet analysts believe Ethereum price structure points to a potential recovery after the $16 billion options expiry.

BTC and ETH Options Expiry Triggers Heavy Liquidations

The recent downward trend coincides with the expiration of large Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts on October 31. Based on Deribit, the firm reported 123,000 BTC options with a total value of $13.52 billion and 642,000 ETH options with a total value of nearly $2.5 billion set to expire.

The put-call ratio of Bitcoin is 0.70, which indicates that there are slightly more bullish bets than bearish hedges. However, over the last 24 hours, put volume has outpaced calls, indicating short-term caution among traders. The max-pain level trades around $114,000; this means the price tends to move towards that strike as contracts expire.

Ethereum’s case seems more fragile. Its put-call ratio reached 2.0 as volatility seekers rushed to hedge against further downside. The max-pain point of $4,100, well above spot prices near $3,830, reflects heavy pressure around the $4,000 and $3,600 strikes. Traders have initiated new puts on next-month expiry, reflecting continued defensive positioning.

CME and Deribit volumes have grown closer to spot ETF volumes, and the options markets have become the primary indicator of crypto sentiment. These expiry dates often lead to massive swings, dictating the momentum for the month ahead.

10x Research Warns on Ethereum Setup

Despite optimism across derivatives, analysts at 10x Research are cautious. The firm reported an increase in implied volatility on near-term Bitcoin futures contracts, with longer maturities remaining stable, as it observes the nearing of an inflection point.

However, 10x Research was quite bearish on Ethereum. Analyst Markus Thielen, while advising against accumulating ETH, noted that something had gone wrong along the way. He pointed to low institutional belief and recent ETF outflows as a source of concern.

Ethereum’s “digital treasury” narrative was linked to institutional inflows earlier this year; however, selling pressure increased as those positions were released into the retail market. The report concluded that institutions are reacting to realized flows, not general liquidity conditions.

Ethereum Retests Long-Term Triangle After 1,400 Days

While derivatives show fear, the chart data highlighted Ethereum price setup as potentially strong. Technical analyst GalaxyBTC reported that Ethereum is retesting a downward triangle formation from 2021, which has a timescale of 1,400 days.

The chart showed that ETH has reached the top of its multi-year consolidation, implying a classic retest before a continuation. GalaxyBTC said, “November can be the month where we complete retesting the triangle and the bull run resumes.”

Support levels hit $1,800 and $2,000, while resistance is near $4,800, Ethereum’s all-time high. A confirmed break from current levels may set the stage for another strong cycle to unfold in 2026.

Historically, such breakout retests have triggered extended rallies when macroeconomic uncertainty subsided. Traders now look at the upcoming derivatives reset and ETF flows’ ability to support this technical pattern.

Analyst Sees Ethereum Repeating Its 2020 Cycle

Crypto analyst Ardizor compared Ethereum’s current chart to its 2020 retest before the last parabolic bullish move. According to him, ETH is “repeating the same retest, the same structure.” He estimated that $8,000 is merely “FUD,” and that the “real target” is $20,000.

Ardizor’s analysis overlays the 2020 and 2025 structures, indicating similar breakouts above key horizontal resistance. Both formations resulted in rounded bases followed by a sharp upward configuration. He believes that once macro pressures ease, the next significant move will follow that pattern.

This comparison reinforces the narrative that Ethereum’s consolidation is part of an accumulation phase. Despite the current turbulence, the network’s fundamentals and institutional presence remain unshaken.

If spot ETF inflows return and options expiries unwind smoothly, Ethereum price may reclaim leadership into 2026. For the time being, the traders are looking at the $3,800 to $4,100 zone as a pivot for a momentum recovery.